Nope! This 2019 paper modeled the probabilities of proceeding for drug trials and found that ~60% of vaccines that finished phase 2 trials went on to phase 3. Of those, 85% were approvedhttps://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524 …
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But also, these probabilities are not independent here. All the leading candidates for which we have data are different ways of delivering RNA for the same protein. Not a big surprise that multiple candidates would show promise if one does.
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