30/n As I've outlined, there are also a number of simple errors that make this very problematic as an estimate of the IFR (or the IFR range) for COVID-19
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31/n All that being said, the discussion is now MUCH better, and really engages with some of the things I (and others) discussed in previous threads. Too much to go over here, but well worth a read
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32/n Ioannidis has also now included some of the government-conducted studies in the paper, which is good to seepic.twitter.com/VRLXEr8geQ
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33/n All in all, some definite improvements, but a lot of things still in the paper that are really hard to reconcile with best practice
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Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
34/n The one thing I would point out - this from earlier in the thread is a classic example of moving the goalposts. The influenza comparison was clearly wrong, so now we have another comparison which is bad but slightly less wronghttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1283232032085032961?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
Health NerdVerified account @GidMK6/n On the downside, we now have this comparison with the death rates from flu, which is also just...weird If nothing else, the COVID-19 pandemic is STILL GROWING and has ALREADY killed as many people as a 'bad' influenza season pic.twitter.com/Et7Ofqt8LIShow this thread2 replies 2 retweets 20 likesShow this thread -
35/n imo much better practice would be to acknowledge that COVID-19 is probably substantially more lethal than influenza, but that quantifying this difference is somewhat challenging
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36/n Also, another statement that is incorrect and has remained in each version - that disadvantaged populations/settings are uncommon exceptions in the global landscape This remains simply untruepic.twitter.com/8M8QjQ6ZWv
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37/n Also, you can find my personal best estimate in the paper that
@LeaMerone and I authored on IFR here. A reasonable guess for most areas seems to be 0.5-0.8%https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4 …4 replies 7 retweets 24 likesShow this thread -
Health Nerd Retweeted
38/n Another addition, this thread goes through some of the headaches with the paper that have remained through every version TL:DR - it's not systematic! https://twitter.com/AVG_Joseph96/status/1283236273558294528?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
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He did update that paper in May, so yes I think so
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