10/n The study only tested two groups: healthcare workers and people on dialysis Now, Ioannidis excludes any testing on healthcare workers, but dialysis patients are...fine?pic.twitter.com/4tYTh4dwNT
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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10/n The study only tested two groups: healthcare workers and people on dialysis Now, Ioannidis excludes any testing on healthcare workers, but dialysis patients are...fine?pic.twitter.com/4tYTh4dwNT
11/n And these high numbers of seropositive estimates led to inferred IFRs for these four places in China of 0.00%!pic.twitter.com/zkMNza7NNo
12/n If nothing else, the numbers here imply that 99.9996% of all infections in Chongqing were asymptomatic (500 official cases, widespread testing, but seropositivity of 3.8% in the study implying 12 million 'true' cases) Is this plausible???pic.twitter.com/qSm99jQ0Kw
13/n There are also some numbers in this revised paper that are wrong This figure should read 44%, not 47%pic.twitter.com/xccqCxh6Om
14/n Moreover, in the example highlighted above, the IFR calculated is for Brooklyn, but this was only true for a tiny subset of 240 patients in this 28,523 patient study. The IFR calculation should've been for the whole of NYC, not just Brooklyn!pic.twitter.com/178IRcCQ3x
15/n There are also some worrying inconsistencies in how Ioannidis has split up studies that sampled multiple places within countries
16/n For example, the ENE-COVID and Brazilian studies, which sampled entire countries by region, are only summed up as a single valuepic.twitter.com/6295tiG91O
17/n On the other hand, several studies that sampled multiple regions (but found MUCH lower IFRs) in other places are split up by area I cannot see any explanation for this in the paperpic.twitter.com/sdMyr7qGCo
18/n On top of this, we've got another problem - collinearity The basic issue is that you shouldn't lump multiple samples of the same group of people together into one study
Good thread but this is not collinearity (which is correlation between covariates) but nesting
Whoops, you're right. My mistake!
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