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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jul 2020

      10/n The study only tested two groups: healthcare workers and people on dialysis Now, Ioannidis excludes any testing on healthcare workers, but dialysis patients are...fine?pic.twitter.com/4tYTh4dwNT

      2 replies 3 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jul 2020

      11/n And these high numbers of seropositive estimates led to inferred IFRs for these four places in China of 0.00%!pic.twitter.com/zkMNza7NNo

      1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jul 2020

      12/n If nothing else, the numbers here imply that 99.9996% of all infections in Chongqing were asymptomatic (500 official cases, widespread testing, but seropositivity of 3.8% in the study implying 12 million 'true' cases) Is this plausible???pic.twitter.com/qSm99jQ0Kw

      4 replies 1 retweet 26 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jul 2020

      13/n There are also some numbers in this revised paper that are wrong This figure should read 44%, not 47%pic.twitter.com/xccqCxh6Om

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jul 2020

      14/n Moreover, in the example highlighted above, the IFR calculated is for Brooklyn, but this was only true for a tiny subset of 240 patients in this 28,523 patient study. The IFR calculation should've been for the whole of NYC, not just Brooklyn!pic.twitter.com/178IRcCQ3x

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jul 2020

      15/n There are also some worrying inconsistencies in how Ioannidis has split up studies that sampled multiple places within countries

      1 reply 2 retweets 19 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jul 2020

      16/n For example, the ENE-COVID and Brazilian studies, which sampled entire countries by region, are only summed up as a single valuepic.twitter.com/6295tiG91O

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jul 2020

      17/n On the other hand, several studies that sampled multiple regions (but found MUCH lower IFRs) in other places are split up by area I cannot see any explanation for this in the paperpic.twitter.com/sdMyr7qGCo

      1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jul 2020

      18/n On top of this, we've got another problem - collinearity The basic issue is that you shouldn't lump multiple samples of the same group of people together into one study

      2 replies 2 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Maarten van Smeden‏ @MaartenvSmeden 15 Jul 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Good thread but this is not collinearity (which is correlation between covariates) but nesting

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Jul 2020
      Replying to @MaartenvSmeden

      Whoops, you're right. My mistake!

      11:13 PM - 15 Jul 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • LIndenArden Maarten van Smeden Mateu Bastos Felipe Nogueira
      0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes

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