25/n For example, Geneva. The original authors calculated an IFR of 0.64%, but this is downgraded to 0.45% in the paperpic.twitter.com/lEEG7LPjez
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more
Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more
By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.
| Country | Code | For customers of |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 40404 | (any) |
| Canada | 21212 | (any) |
| United Kingdom | 86444 | Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2 |
| Brazil | 40404 | Nextel, TIM |
| Haiti | 40404 | Digicel, Voila |
| Ireland | 51210 | Vodafone, O2 |
| India | 53000 | Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance |
| Indonesia | 89887 | AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata |
| Italy | 4880804 | Wind |
| 3424486444 | Vodafone | |
| » See SMS short codes for other countries | ||
This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.
Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.
When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.
The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.
Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.
Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.
Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.
See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.
Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.
25/n For example, Geneva. The original authors calculated an IFR of 0.64%, but this is downgraded to 0.45% in the paperpic.twitter.com/lEEG7LPjez
26/n And this is not the only example. Another study tested over three weeks and found seroprevalence of 3.85%, then 8.36%, then 1.46%. Overall 3.53% The 8.36% figure is used, giving 5x more infections than the study itself found, and the lowest IFR possiblepic.twitter.com/ZeC8arsL7P
27/n Taking all this into account, let's look at the IFRs for only those studies using representative population samples that were correctly calculated
28/n Here's the revised table. The lowest IFR is, again, Ioannidis' own study, at 0.18%. Nearly half of the estimates are above 1%, and they range all the way up to 1.63% (!)pic.twitter.com/7xU7DGrq2Q
29/n Somehow, for the third time running, there are innumerable decisions made in the paper that seem to only ever push down the IFR, rather than produce the best estimate
30/n As I've outlined, there are also a number of simple errors that make this very problematic as an estimate of the IFR (or the IFR range) for COVID-19
31/n All that being said, the discussion is now MUCH better, and really engages with some of the things I (and others) discussed in previous threads. Too much to go over here, but well worth a read
32/n Ioannidis has also now included some of the government-conducted studies in the paper, which is good to seepic.twitter.com/VRLXEr8geQ
The reporting of the ONS Infection Survey is off too. The study population is England, not the UK, which based on the DHSC death counts (which the pre-print uses) pushes the IFR up to 0.83%.
It also isn't clear to me why they use ONS data for the prevalence but DHSC data for the deaths. The ONS death estimates up to 15/5 are 41 033 (compared to 30 908 up to 17/5 for DHSC), which would give an IFR of 1.11%.
Huh you're right. Another mistake
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.