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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      3/ Lancet letter argues against it: - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30561-2/fulltext … - Good news piece on topic with interviews: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-surfaces-groceries-packages-playgrounds-1.5645602 … People should still wash hands etc. But appears unlikely to be MAJOR contributor to spread. If anyone disagrees, pls reply and explain why

      6 replies 29 retweets 172 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      4/ b) Ballistic drops (HT @Don_Milton, analogy to rain drops) fall to ground quickly. These are WHO’s “droplets” fall in 1-2 m, 1-2 sec (graph). Can infect by impacting on eyes, nostrils, mouth. No direct evidence, but definitely possible. What fraction? Keep reading.

      3 replies 24 retweets 158 likes
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    3. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      5/ c) Aerosols: don’t fall to ground quickly unlike drops, stay in the air tens of sec to hrs (depend on size). Infect by inhalation (or deposition onto eyes). Substantial evidence it happens (https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa939/5867798 …), not 100% proof, @WHO resists.

      5 replies 65 retweets 218 likes
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    4. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      6/ So 2 main players: drops & aerosols. 2 pieces of evidence suggest relative importance: - Pandemic driven by superspreading events (eg https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/science/how-coronavirus-spreads.html …). Easy to explain w/ aerosols. Harder w/ drops. Transmission requires “prolongued close contact” (PCC).

      8 replies 63 retweets 220 likes
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    5. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      7/ Need PCC with lots of ppl in a location. E.g. Skagit Choir (we investigated), fixed singing positions w/ 0-2 people within 6 ft in landing area of drops. A couple of 10 min breaks. Could index case “spit” drops on 53 ppl in such short breaks? No time for PCC!

      8 replies 25 retweets 161 likes
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    6. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      8/ Guangzhou restaurant, buses, other cases. “Contorsionist thinking” (B. Nazaroff) required to explain w/o aerosols - Note that when face-to-face, majority of infection likely through aerosols, much more concentrated right in front of person:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360132320302183 …

      5 replies 39 retweets 165 likes
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    7. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      9/ -There is PCC both indoors & outdoors. Drops are ballistic, no time for dilution or UV to remove virus, don’t care indoors or outdoors, should be similar. Aerosols are carried by the wind, incredible dilution, more time for UV to destroy virus (very quick).

      8 replies 35 retweets 178 likes
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    8. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      10/ Run Skagit choir case in aerosol transmission estimator (https://tinyurl.com/covid-estimator  “choir” sheet), reproduces infection rate. Now move exact choir outdoors (“outdoors” sheet), infection drops from 83% to 0.4%.

      3 replies 65 retweets 260 likes
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    9. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      11/ Real-world: "The vast majority of transmission seems to be through close contact with an infected individual, primarily in an indoor setting." (CBC article above). Only aerosols can explain this.

      8 replies 81 retweets 312 likes
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    10. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020

      12/ Conclusion: for the first time, I am ready to say publicly that my *guess* is that the majority (>50%) of the spread is through aerosols. Pls comment w/ your take. @linseymarr @ShellyMBoulder @CathNoakes @Don_Milton @SaskiaPopescu @angie_rasmussen @eliowa @GidMK

      30 replies 107 retweets 407 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jljcolorado @linseymarr and

      Well, some thoughts I guess. Firstly, as the WHO points out, all of the superspreading events thus far ~could~ be explained adequately with fomites and droplet spreadpic.twitter.com/u5rpguT8sL

      11:10 PM - 11 Jul 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 7 Likes
      • observatorio Dr Sam RealTomPaine1737 Dr. Lynora Saxinger 🇨🇦 *not checking mentions John J. Lowe, Ph.D. Eli Perencevich, MD MS🧼 😷 Dr. Saskia Popescu
      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jul 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jljcolorado and

          Droplets don't just require people to *spit*, this is a mischaracterization. Fomites, in particular, have been demonstrated to spread respiratory disease, including things like paper being passed around (an obvious possibility in a choir!)https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1828811/ …

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jul 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jljcolorado and

          Broadly speaking, I think this is where the basic scientists and epidemiologists are coming into conflict. Saying "this is how aerosols work!" is meaningless if you don't engage in contact tracing investigations looking at how the virus ~actually spreads~

          1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
        4. Show replies

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