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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 10 Jul 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @angie_rasmussen and

      Because there is no other good way to explain it. Sick person was in fixed positions in room singing, did not touch others. Fomites low likelihood per CDC. How can person spit enough droplets within 1 m if 53 people?

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jljcolorado @angie_rasmussen and

      That's just a circular argument tho. "It is because it must be". Many epidemiological explanations e.g. recall bias which might explain it, which is why epidemiologists have been more cautious with inference

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 10 Jul 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @angie_rasmussen and

      No it is not. It is likely to be, because it can explain it w/o contortionism. And because none of the alternative explanations are plausible.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jljcolorado @angie_rasmussen and

      If you don't think that there are plausible ways in which a group of people who moved around and socialised for 2+ hours might have interacted closely enough to spread disease via droplets and fomites then I'd recommend reading up on the topic e.g.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1828811/ …

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Lazarus Long‏ @LazarusLong13 10 Jul 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @jljcolorado and

      Lazarus Long Retweeted

      I tend to agree with Dylan below, having been in choirs. There just isn't as much intermingling as you would think for it to be close contact. You tend to hang out with the couple of people next to you. https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1260656040468602880?s=19 …

      Lazarus Long added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jul 2020
      Replying to @LazarusLong13 @jljcolorado and

      Every choir I've been in has been a social setting. People greet, catch up, have quiet chats while everyone gets their music together. It's not a crowd of automatons that enters and leaves on cue!

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @LazarusLong13 and

      Some social interaction. Two periods of 10 min. How much "close contact" with 53 ppl in that time? Most people talk to a few friends, don't go around greeting all 53. No hand shaking. - So I can give you 5-10 cases from fomites and droplets. Just no way to explain 53 out of 60.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jljcolorado @LazarusLong13 and

      Like I said, this is what you would get if you believe that people are automatons. In fact, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that one garrulous person might talk to everyone there, or that some hands were shaken/hugs exchanged despite the general policy 🤷‍♂️

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @LazarusLong13 and

      Agreed. But we know who index case was. Details can't be made public (privacy), but we know person didn't do that. Likely mingled less than average - Chance of 2nd index case v low. No cases in county of 130k ppl at the time. Only 7 by time this cluster broke, ~0.005% chance

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jljcolorado @GidMK and

      - Why so hard to accept that aerosols may be playing a role, and adopt measures against it as a precaution? - e.g. not certain / controversial that some contaminants cause cancer. Still wise to avoid them if you can.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jljcolorado @LazarusLong13 and

      That's not what your argument has been. Your original point was that there's no way to explain these cases except for aerosols (this is the assumption that your paper relies on and the entire argument). That's incorrect, as I've pointed out

      4:21 PM - 11 Jul 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 11 Jul 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @LazarusLong13 and

          Too few words for Twitter. Still think you can't explain EVENT w/o aerosols. Could explain~ 5 cases, not 53. Just no time for extended close contact - paper makes case for aerosols - Then does calcs w assump of 100% for simplicity. Results similar if assume 80% or 90% or whatever

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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