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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 Jul 2020

      Your regular reminder that we've known for some time that SARS-CoV-2 isn't "airborne" in the colloquial sense, the debate is about communication rather than science

      17 replies 29 retweets 176 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 Jul 2020

      Like, the disease is spread through droplets in the air, and how small those are and how far they travel is a matter of great debate, but there's never been any question that COVID-19 is less infectious than "airborne" diseases like measles

      2 replies 10 retweets 64 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 Jul 2020

      So while we may need to change messaging to encourage mask wearing, it's never been likely that, for example, you'd catch COVID-19 from someone walking 100m away

      6 replies 7 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Mark Gubrud‏ @mgubrud 6 Jul 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Not likely, but also not impossible, if the wind happens to be blowing just the right way.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jul 2020
      Replying to @mgubrud

      Nothing's impossible, but in most places where contact tracing has been sufficiently good the vast majority of cases are from close contacts rather than happenstance interactions

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Mark Gubrud‏ @mgubrud 6 Jul 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      True, but there are always a large fraction where the origin can't be identified. The point I made is relevant to large crowds where there might be someone infected upwind of you in almost any direction the wind might blow.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jul 2020
      Replying to @mgubrud

      Well in Australia the unknown contact cases make up only ~10% of all cases, not sure if that's a large fraction in this definition. And yes as I said it's ~possible~ but we're really more interested in whether it's likely or common

      6:43 PM - 6 Jul 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Mark Gubrud‏ @mgubrud 6 Jul 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          10% is a very substantial number. But the main point is we should (and do) warn people against large crowds.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jul 2020
          Replying to @mgubrud

          Sure, but that's not 10% caused by unknown transmission, it's 10% where we haven't been able to track back to a specific outbreak. In some states that number is almost 0% here. Not saying crowds are safe, obviously

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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