I'm so very tired of COVID-19 modelling papers that present direct calculations from their assumptions as the "findings" of their model YOU JUST ASSUMED THAT. UGH
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No fancy model needed. If only 2% of cases are symptomatic, and thus diagnosed, then with ~200k identified cases in NY state you get 10mil infections
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I’ll give any of those authors 20:1 odds that the NYC total infected falls outside of their 45.81-46.60% 95% confidence interval right now. Enough significant digits maybe?
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Oh indeed, it's ridiculous false precision. It's a pretty bad paper in a number of ways
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I was going to sarcastically guess who some of the authors were as a joke...then I looked at the paper. I was actually right...
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