In a totally unrelated point, this new preprint assumes that 90%+ of patients are asymptomatic and then presents the argument that 46% of New York has been infected by COVID-19 which is directly implied by that assumptionhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.23.20111419v2 …
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No fancy model needed. If only 2% of cases are symptomatic, and thus diagnosed, then with ~200k identified cases in NY state you get 10mil infections
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This is very common in "modeling" and economics
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You know I’m not sure I understood any of that
. Maybe because the bulk of my modelling has always been
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“A large asymptomatic population will make isolation, containment, and tracing of individual cases challenging”. Vietnam managed to aggressively trace and contain by acting early to control numbers. If JI would just stop blaming the virus and blame the incompetent humans....
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This is what gets me. The claim test and trace won’t work because of the biology of the virus. Tell that to the South Koreans. It may no be practical in the US for other reasons.
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