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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

    HUGE Systematic review and meta-analysis of point-of-care serological tests for COVID-19 antibodies "Currently, available evidence does not support the continued use of existing point-of-care serological tests"pic.twitter.com/TKg4SdK0u6

    3:57 PM - 1 Jul 2020
    • 76 Retweets
    • 169 Likes
    • Jared West, MD Nehemiah Ongeso Rie WEARS A MASK Dr Richard Simpson jadoust Maureen Canning Alex Edwards Dr Carissa Bonner Gerry McCartney
    8 replies 76 retweets 169 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

        Really worrying information on false positives and negatives: "if an LFIA is applied to a population with a...prevalence of 10%, for every 1000 people tested, 31...will be incorrectly told they are immune, and 34...will be incorrectly told that they were never infected."

        1 reply 8 retweets 21 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

        The review also found that the evidence used to generate sensitivity/specificity was woefully inadequate and at high risk of biaspic.twitter.com/ldugtRdp0Y

        1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

        This is really bad for serological surveys (many of which have used these point-of-care tests) Raises the question about infection-fatality estimates, particularly those based on populations with low rates of infection

        1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

        Sorry, forgot to link. Study is here:https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2516 …

        2 replies 5 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

        The problem for many serosurveys is that they used ELISA tests for IgG. According to this study, the pooled estimate for specificity of these tests is 98.9% and sensitivity of 80.6%

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

        Now in a population with a 10% prevalence, that's pretty bad. In 1000 people, you miss 20 true positives and get 10 false positives, so you underestimate prevalence substantially

        1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

        Conversely, if you have 1% prevalence, you miss 2 true positives but get 11 false ones, so you overestimate the prevalence of COVID infections enormously This is a big problem!

        1 reply 3 retweets 11 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

        Now, some serosurveys have corrected for issues like this, but these new results suggest that commercial tests are less reliable and that their figures are more likely to be wrong That's a worry

        3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jul 2020

        Also, apologies, the initial tweet was incorrect - this SR/MA was for ALL serology tests for COVID-19 not just POC ones

        2 replies 3 retweets 7 likes
        Show this thread
      11. End of conversation
      1. Ken Maclean‏ @kenpcg 1 Jul 2020
        Replying to @GidMK @CollignonPeter

        Great short thread

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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