Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020

      Given that ~75% of London COVID-19 deaths occur in hospitals, that means ~7,500 deaths and ~1.5mil cases, so an IFR of ~0.5% for London

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020

      We can also look at the whole UK IFR from this data ~5% of the country infected gives ~3,332,500 infections 24,000 deaths in-hospital gives ~32,000 deaths Therefore overall IFR is 32k/3.3mil = 0.96% IFR

      3 replies 3 retweets 13 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020

      (Apologies, above tweet should say IFR for the whole of ENGLAND, not the UK. This data is from the ONS testing in England, and the death reports from England as well)

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

      4 - Belgium New preprint estimates seroprevalence in Belgium as of April 26th at ~6% Population of Belgium - 11,460,000, so ~690,000 infections Implies an IFR of 1.1%pic.twitter.com/g3cHlGhsw5

      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

      This is using death data from the 30th of April to again crudely account for right-censoring

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Jun 2020

      Another new estimate - the authors of the Geneva seroprevalence study have age-corrected their data and come to an IFR of 0.64%https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127423v1 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 30 Jun 2020

      Second stage of Indiana serology testing has come back, implying 1.5% of the population had been infected (and 0.6% was currently infected) with COVID-19 by 8th June That's 2.1% of 6,732,000 people, or 141,000 infectionspic.twitter.com/Ejq4MmA7Kf

      3 replies 3 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Jason K‏ @nice_shot_jk 30 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Am I reading this wrong or is phase 2 showing fewer people had/have covid-19 than phase 1? Should they be added together or something? Phase 1 = 2.8% Phase 2 = 2.1%

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 30 Jun 2020
      Replying to @nice_shot_jk

      Nope you're reading correctly. Might be to do with the variance expected of serology or differences in the samples (the more recent serology was random selection apparently)

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Jason K‏ @nice_shot_jk 30 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      That seems extremely odd to me given the timeframe between each phase. Have you seen this happen from other states or countries from a study from the same group? I know the tests aren't perfect, but wow. Interested to see your weighting for each phase for your IFR calculation

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 30 Jun 2020
      Replying to @nice_shot_jk

      Nope. In general the % positive from serology has gone up over time, this is the first time I've seen it go down

      10:16 PM - 30 Jun 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 1 Jul 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @nice_shot_jk

          Political polls report their confidence intervals; and here we have two press releases about a serological study of a pandemic everyone is arguing about, and there is not a single CI to be found...

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. Jason K‏ @nice_shot_jk 6 Jul 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          How do sero studies handle people who lose their anti-bodies and will show up as not having been infected? Or do we have a test for t-cells to detect this? Could this partially be why IN had their numbers go down and Spain stay flat? How does this affect IFR calculations?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info