And if they don’t? Daily deaths in the UK have been in decline for weeks despite looser restrictions?
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Replying to @discoball2000 @GidMK
It'd be great if death counts stay low ofc. I don't know of many cases where a strong growth in cases hasn't been followed by an increase in deaths a few weeks later though.
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Replying to @CFlensburg
Singapore is the only one I know of, and that's due to the demographics of their outbreak
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Replying to @GidMK @CFlensburg
and Japan? Again due to demo? Healthier and thinner population.
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Replying to @discoball2000 @CFlensburg
Not really, still a CFR of nearly 5% in Japan (although they aren't doing much testing)
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Replying to @GidMK
Yeah, so in the case of US, unless they have massively increased testing and reporting last few weeks, I guess it's likely that deaths will follow soon. Agree?
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Replying to @CFlensburg
I try not to make predictions, but I would be surprised if the death rate in the US didn't start to go upwards in the next month or so
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Replying to @GidMK @CFlensburg
but if the majority of new cases are of the young why would death rate go up much? (assuming the small % that are vulnerable keep isolating / social distancing etc) - but yes, will be interesting!
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Replying to @discoball2000 @CFlensburg
Because lots of cases in the young cause lots of cases in the old. Also no evidence that these cases are just in the young in the US
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Replying to @GidMK @CFlensburg
Didn’t say ‘just’ ? So why isn’t the response to manage the behaviour of the old and vulnerable not micro manage the behaviour of those who aren’t that affected by it? 43% of US deaths from nursing homes. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/29/world/coronavirus-updates.html …
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Because everyone's affected by it. Answered this already
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Replying to @GidMK @CFlensburg
Don't many (the majority?) have mild to no symptoms?
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