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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Jun 2020

      Something I've been playing with - if you meta-analyze IFRs based on serological samples by the proportion of people who test positive, places where lots of people have gotten COVID-19 are worse off (0.81% IFR vs 0.45%)pic.twitter.com/jIbXhj2hOK

      7 replies 11 retweets 20 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Jun 2020

      Two reasons I've thought might explain this (speculative): 1. Higher % with antibodies means harder-hit hospital system, therefore higher IFR 2. Lower % more prey to false positives, overestimating prevalence and thus underestimating IFR

      8:21 PM - 29 Jun 2020
      • 5 Retweets
      • 17 Likes
      • Yvan Dutil Lazarus Long Ketofan1000 LIndenArden Andreas Prucha 🔴🟡 aure Andrei Kucharavy Atomsk's Sanakan LB person of interest
      4 replies 5 retweets 17 likes
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        2. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 29 Jun 2020
          Replying to @MagnetsOh @GidMK

          Makes sense, but I though the Norbotten one was new Also about the graph: 1) Is Indiana's 1st phase right-censored? https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/05/iupui/releases/13-preliminary-findings-impact-covid-19-indiana-coronavirus.html … 2) Is it right to say Indiana's 2nd phase IFR is ~1.7%? https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm  https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/06/iupui/releases/17-fairbanks-isdh-second-phase-covid-19-testing-indiana-research.html …pic.twitter.com/mVTxJ0g494

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. OKDK!!‏ @OKDK36635007 29 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          suppose that with this illness eventually the IFR for the elderly is going to always be really high. then in those places with lots of cases there are simply more elderly who ultimately are exposed?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Dr Zoë Hyde‏ @DrZoeHyde 30 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          My money is on hypothesis number 1: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article …pic.twitter.com/Tk6MEZPlv5

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Jan 12
          Replying to @GidMK

          Re: "Two reasons" Another possibility: 3. Infections starts in the younger who socially interact more. If transmission isn't curbed + seroprevalence increases, SARS-CoV-2 find its way to older people (who are more likely to die) https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1299702013450747904 … https://twitter.com/OYCar/status/1341615819734667264 …pic.twitter.com/pY5fagA9t4

          1 reply 2 retweets 5 likes
        3. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Jan 20
          Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @GidMK

          Atomsk's Sanakan Retweeted Atomsk's Sanakan

          I may check later with longitudinal age-specific seroprevalence studies to see if outbreaks progressed from: - low population-wide IFR with relatively more young people increased, to: - higher population-wide IFR with relatively more older people infectedhttps://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1352094005828456448 …

          Atomsk's Sanakan added,

          Atomsk's Sanakan @AtomsksSanakan
          Replying to @MartinJuhl2 @KasperKepp @LindorffLarsen
          Re: "adjust for age" One can still calculate population-wide IFR with population-wide # of infections and population-wide # of deaths. But age is important, since Denmark's IFR would increase as more older people are infected. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1349173276262719488 … https://files.ssi.dk/praevalensundersoegelse_runde3 … pic.twitter.com/nM1UO3oNZw
          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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