Something I've been playing with - if you meta-analyze IFRs based on serological samples by the proportion of people who test positive, places where lots of people have gotten COVID-19 are worse off (0.81% IFR vs 0.45%)pic.twitter.com/jIbXhj2hOK
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Makes sense, but I though the Norbotten one was new Also about the graph: 1) Is Indiana's 1st phase right-censored? https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/05/iupui/releases/13-preliminary-findings-impact-covid-19-indiana-coronavirus.html … 2) Is it right to say Indiana's 2nd phase IFR is ~1.7%? https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/06/iupui/releases/17-fairbanks-isdh-second-phase-covid-19-testing-indiana-research.html …pic.twitter.com/mVTxJ0g494
suppose that with this illness eventually the IFR for the elderly is going to always be really high. then in those places with lots of cases there are simply more elderly who ultimately are exposed?
My money is on hypothesis number 1: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article …pic.twitter.com/Tk6MEZPlv5
Re: "Two reasons" Another possibility: 3. Infections starts in the younger who socially interact more. If transmission isn't curbed + seroprevalence increases, SARS-CoV-2 find its way to older people (who are more likely to die) https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1299702013450747904 … https://twitter.com/OYCar/status/1341615819734667264 …pic.twitter.com/pY5fagA9t4
I may check later with longitudinal age-specific seroprevalence studies to see if outbreaks progressed from: - low population-wide IFR with relatively more young people increased, to: - higher population-wide IFR with relatively more older people infectedhttps://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1352094005828456448 …
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