Massive serosurveys have found, across the board, that very few people are immune to COVID-19, even in hard-hit areas Aside from that, the specific numbers are not nearly as important as people are making them out to be, imo
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Replying to @JuliaLBach8
Not really true. Experts always knew that the IFR would be lower than the CFR, and that it would not be 3-4%. The fact that it is likely 0.5-1% has very little impact on policy compared to the information we already had
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Replying to @GidMK
Page 12. Estimated CFR of 3.8%. They footnote and give caveats, but it didn’t matter. Media ran with it. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf …
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Replying to @JuliaLBach8 @GidMK1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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Replying to @JuliaLBach8 @GidMK
The serology studies were meant to refute reporting like this, which drove public approval for the lockdowns, because people had been told that millions would die.
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Replying to @JuliaLBach8
That's largely wrong. Media sensationalism aside, the serosurveys were there to establish how widespread infections had been in the population, with some hoping that they'd show a vastly reduced mortality rate. In fact, they've mostly shown that mortality is high
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Replying to @GidMK
Don’t we also need to put context around these numbers based on age? Total IFR may be 0.2%-0.6%, higher than flu, but includes a lot of elderly medically fragile people. Exclude them as outliers (and protect them differently) and we have flu IFR, or less.
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Replying to @JuliaLBach8
If you exclude elderly, the IFR of flu drops drastically. Almost all influenza deaths are in <5yo and >65yo, whereas COVID-19 kills from 30+ The age-specific IFR of COVID is far higher than influenza as well
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That's a ridiculously silly argument. Death is not the only risk from COVID, and it's absurd to compare, say, skydiving with infectious disease
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