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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020

      Massive serosurveys have found, across the board, that very few people are immune to COVID-19, even in hard-hit areas Aside from that, the specific numbers are not nearly as important as people are making them out to be, imo

      5 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      The point was to show that it isn’t 3-4%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @JuliaLBach8

      Not really true. Experts always knew that the IFR would be lower than the CFR, and that it would not be 3-4%. The fact that it is likely 0.5-1% has very little impact on policy compared to the information we already had

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Page 12. Estimated CFR of 3.8%. They footnote and give caveats, but it didn’t matter. Media ran with it. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @JuliaLBach8 @GidMK

      https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-countries-2020-3 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @JuliaLBach8 @GidMK

      The serology studies were meant to refute reporting like this, which drove public approval for the lockdowns, because people had been told that millions would die.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @JuliaLBach8

      That's largely wrong. Media sensationalism aside, the serosurveys were there to establish how widespread infections had been in the population, with some hoping that they'd show a vastly reduced mortality rate. In fact, they've mostly shown that mortality is high

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Don’t we also need to put context around these numbers based on age? Total IFR may be 0.2%-0.6%, higher than flu, but includes a lot of elderly medically fragile people. Exclude them as outliers (and protect them differently) and we have flu IFR, or less.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @JuliaLBach8

      If you exclude elderly, the IFR of flu drops drastically. Almost all influenza deaths are in <5yo and >65yo, whereas COVID-19 kills from 30+ The age-specific IFR of COVID is far higher than influenza as well

      4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Agreed that flu also drops lower if you exclude elderly. Both COVID and flu would be low.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @JuliaLBach8

      But COVID would be several dozen times more fatal than influenza. That's the point

      11:20 PM - 24 Jun 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I grant that it will likely wind up more deadly (two years from now, when we actually have more accurate data). A dozen times? No.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020
          Replying to @JuliaLBach8

          Broadly speaking, I'd guess somewhere around 50x more deadlyhttps://link.medium.com/vvJ4nREOy7 

          4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          We have massive numbers of nursing home deaths, some deaths in middle-aged adults, and nearly zero deaths in young adults and kids. Doesn’t sound like it is a dozen times more deadly than flu.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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