The Imperial team used Diamond Princess data to estimate an IFR of 0.66% (0.2-1.3%) in March That is almost exactly what we see in the serosurveys across the world today, months laterpic.twitter.com/bqEQ7yzX4q
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Other disease, baseline risk, whichever metric you'd really be interested in. An IFR of 0.5% implies roughly 1.2 million deaths in the US before you'd be close to herd immunity
What’s your herd immunity assumption?
Apparently no heterogenous transmission, no cross-immunity with other coronaviruses, no loss of detectable antibodies over time, and a very high R0. Start adding any of those back in and then Sweden’s decline in fatalities makes more sense.pic.twitter.com/fwSqTFno7j
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