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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      This is something I've really been struck by when looking at the infection fatality rate of COVID-19. Despite the enormous number of serosurveys that some called essential, we've gained almost no real knowledge by pinpointing a specific IFRhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1275982748759412736 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Replying to @bpwhite_bio @ProfMattFox
      I don't know that it is even now. Despite the huge attention paid to serosurveys and the effort to determine a 'true' IFR, I'm not sure it has told us anything important that we didn't already know
      4 replies 16 retweets 43 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020

      The Imperial team used Diamond Princess data to estimate an IFR of 0.66% (0.2-1.3%) in March That is almost exactly what we see in the serosurveys across the world today, months laterpic.twitter.com/bqEQ7yzX4q

      3 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020

      Pinpointing a specific IFR might be scientifically interesting, but the difference between 0.2% and 0.6% is pretty minimal when it comes to policy, because the impact on health in hard-hit areas is obvious

      1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020

      Massive serosurveys have found, across the board, that very few people are immune to COVID-19, even in hard-hit areas Aside from that, the specific numbers are not nearly as important as people are making them out to be, imo

      5 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      The point was to show that it isn’t 3-4%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @JuliaLBach8

      Not really true. Experts always knew that the IFR would be lower than the CFR, and that it would not be 3-4%. The fact that it is likely 0.5-1% has very little impact on policy compared to the information we already had

      10:44 PM - 24 Jun 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Atomsk's Sanakan
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Page 12. Estimated CFR of 3.8%. They footnote and give caveats, but it didn’t matter. Media ran with it. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 24 Jun 2020
          Replying to @JuliaLBach8 @GidMK

          https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-countries-2020-3 …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. gmopundit (David Tribe Ph.D.) Vinceremo‏ @gmopundit 25 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @JuliaLBach8

          The more relevant parameter is overall susceptible fraction which is at least 60 percent

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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