I think that multiple pieces of evidence support a crude IFR of 0.5-1%, but this understates a MUCH higher risk of death in older cohorts. It is possible that the apparent IFR might decline over time because the most vulnerable have already died https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3 … 3/n
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Replying to @BillHanage
On this question, I think the Swiss data is enlightening: 0-30 = no deaths 30-50 = ~0.001% IFR 50-64 = 0.14% IFR 65+ = 5.6% IFR (!) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127423v1.full.pdf …
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Replying to @GidMK
I was asking elsewhere earlier but haven't got serious quantitative data - anything on risks of 'severe' disease (obvs please define!) in younger cohorts?
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Replying to @BillHanage
I'm actually not sure if that's been well elucidated per se, but you could probably work it out using this data? There are decent estimates of severe acute illness in symptomatic patients by age, and the serosurvey data gives you the denominator I'll look into it
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Replying to @BillHanage
So, the challenge is that hospitalization figures are ongoing, while the seroprevalence figures are a static survey. I don't think from the studies I've seen that you can extrapolate a 'true' hospitalization risk, although there will probably also be a steep age gradient
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Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage
Wait, found a source (in French) for total incidence of hospitalizations in Switzerland. This puts risk of hospitalization at (again, crudely): 0.06% - <20yo 0.15% - 20-49 0.77% - 50-64 4.40% - 65+ Should note that this is an underestimate, but the age trend is there
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Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage
(it's an underestimate because, according to the source, data with missing date values is excluded from the dataset, which means there are hospitalizations not included in this calculation)
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Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage
Calculations and source data https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/situation-schweiz-und-international.html#-1089948393 … https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31304-0/fulltext#seccestitle140 …pic.twitter.com/jlFM3HYf0L
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I should note - this is also an underestimate because from what I've seen the seroprevalence in Geneva is not representative of Switzerland as a whole
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