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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 16 Jun 2020

      Bill Hanage Retweeted Nate Silver

      Will do my best to answer these w usual caveat that these reflect my own reading of the evidence at present 1/nhttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1272885634202570755 …

      Bill Hanage added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      Some Q's I have: —How many people suffer from long-term complications? —Is the IFR declining, and if so why? —How much of the population is susceptible to COVID-19? Is there cross-immunity from other coronaviruses? —How much do heterogeneities affect the herd immunity threshold?
      Show this thread
      1 reply 16 retweets 57 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 16 Jun 2020

      long term complications? depends what you mean by that, but 10% seem to have symptoms past three weeks. In some fraction will be longer//more severe consequences of this multisystem disease https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0916-2 … 2/n

      3 replies 4 retweets 18 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 16 Jun 2020

      I think that multiple pieces of evidence support a crude IFR of 0.5-1%, but this understates a MUCH higher risk of death in older cohorts. It is possible that the apparent IFR might decline over time because the most vulnerable have already died https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3 … 3/n

      3 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage

      On this question, I think the Swiss data is enlightening: 0-30 = no deaths 30-50 = ~0.001% IFR 50-64 = 0.14% IFR 65+ = 5.6% IFR (!) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127423v1.full.pdf …

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    5. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 16 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I was asking elsewhere earlier but haven't got serious quantitative data - anything on risks of 'severe' disease (obvs please define!) in younger cohorts?

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage

      I'm actually not sure if that's been well elucidated per se, but you could probably work it out using this data? There are decent estimates of severe acute illness in symptomatic patients by age, and the serosurvey data gives you the denominator I'll look into it

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 17 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Thanks!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage

      So, the challenge is that hospitalization figures are ongoing, while the seroprevalence figures are a static survey. I don't think from the studies I've seen that you can extrapolate a 'true' hospitalization risk, although there will probably also be a steep age gradient

      3:55 PM - 17 Jun 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage

          Wait, found a source (in French) for total incidence of hospitalizations in Switzerland. This puts risk of hospitalization at (again, crudely): 0.06% - <20yo 0.15% - 20-49 0.77% - 50-64 4.40% - 65+ Should note that this is an underestimate, but the age trend is there

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage

          (it's an underestimate because, according to the source, data with missing date values is excluded from the dataset, which means there are hospitalizations not included in this calculation)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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