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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jun 2020

      4/n The study is here https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117 … Basically, the authors compared the rate of infections before/after mask interventions in three places to a linear trend extrapolation, and found that after masks there were fewer infections than before

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jun 2020

      5/n They also plotted linear regressions of pre-mask and post-mask interventions, showing a linear trend upwards and then downwards Thus, masks caused the change!pic.twitter.com/FsshjCPfTH

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jun 2020

      6/n Now, this is at face value implausible. The authors have picked out masks as an intervention, but the reality here is that there was NO SINGLE INTERVENTION that you could easily point to at any moment in time

      1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jun 2020

      7/n In New York, in the same week that the governor signed a mask law, there were at least 2 other laws implemented regarding COVID-19, and many changes in policy as well It's not as simple as a single intervention!

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jun 2020

      8/n Moreover, the authors have cherry-picked 3 specific places that appear to support their argument This is obviously bad science - what about the rest of the world?

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jun 2020

      9/n What about Australia, where we've never had mask laws (and most people don't wear masks)?pic.twitter.com/CfulD3MWkq

      3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jun 2020

      10/n Or South Korea, where masks have always been a major part of the pandemic response? Both of these are direct counter-examples to the arguments made in the piece, but are excludedpic.twitter.com/ESNAGvHb4C

      3 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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    8. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 14 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Careful. That's a major over simplification of what happened in S Korea.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 14 Jun 2020
      Replying to @jeremyphoward @GidMK

      I don't disagree with your assessment of the paper, but showing that some places did well without masks doesn't provide any evidence against the paper's findings.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 14 Jun 2020
      Replying to @jeremyphoward @GidMK

      And S Korea had a major gov intervention in late Feb to ensure everyone had masks.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jun 2020
      Replying to @jeremyphoward

      Sure, but my point is that if all you're looking at is a simplistic question of masks/no masks it's trivial to find counterexamples. I agree that all of these comparisons are ridiculous oversimplifications- that's the point!

      6:01 PM - 14 Jun 2020
      • 1 Retweet
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      • Karen Price AZ X2
      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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        2. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 14 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Note the paper claims that masks are effective, and maybe even *sufficient* to stop transmission. It doesn't claim they're *necessary*. A counter-example only works to show a claim of necessity is incorrect. The claims of the paper may be correct and still have counter-examples

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Jun 2020
          Replying to @jeremyphoward

          I'm not sure I agree - the paper explicitly argues that other NPIs are insufficient to "protect the public". I'm not sure you can interpret this in any other way tbhpic.twitter.com/ekit7hv5CI

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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