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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

      This is astonishing silliness. There is ~literally no evidence~ that COVID-19 was spreading in Wuhan in Aug/Sept 2019 This whole thing is a HOT MESS 1/npic.twitter.com/SHQ2dxoGKW

      8 replies 41 retweets 106 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

      2/n The study is here: https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767 … It is...not great

      11:03 PM - 10 Jun 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 10 Likes
      • Valerie Solomon Nicole Tay Guffy etym dub Andrew Mendolia Andrei Kucharavy ǝʞᴉlℲ ʎǝH 💉💉 nowy użytkownik Grammar Perkasa
      3 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          3/n Basically, the authors looked at internet search trends for "cough" and "diarrhea" and some satellite photos of hospital parking lots, and concluded that higher-than-usual activity began BEFORE the COVID-19 outbreak officially happened Thus, COVID-19 started early!pic.twitter.com/TmFk49AEsp

          4 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          4/n This has spurred conspiracist fools (and some media sites...ahem) to declare that the Chinese government is hiding data, because obviously this ROBUST SCIENCE has proven things

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          5/n But even THE MOST CURSORY EXAMINATION of the paper reveals that it is pretty hugely flawed Firstly, the magnitude of the findings How much higher was the activity in these hospital parking lots?

          1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          6/n If you look at the regression curve, you can see that this huge increase in activity was actually not that impressive. It's a touch higher than the baseline, but not orders of magnitude biggerpic.twitter.com/ImrJX1l1Jm

          3 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          7/n Similarly, the vast increase in search terms for diarrhea only seems to start...well after the outbreak was officially acknowledgedpic.twitter.com/hDJPPgIXvy

          2 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          8/n So, at face value, there doesn't really appear to be much going on here But it gets worse The authors make this statement, and reference this paper It's one of the foundational arguments of their paper - diarrhea is a major symptom of COVID-19pic.twitter.com/6Dv3x8hIpd

          1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          9/n But if you actually follow that link and check the paper out, you'll find that it showed that 35/204 COVID-19 patients had diarrhea, which is about 17%https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32287140/ 

          2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          10/n More broadly, the current best evidence suggests that diarrhea is a RARE symptom of COVID-19, which makes tracking internet search terms for it a bit...problematicpic.twitter.com/sTKwz7jTot

          2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          11/n It's also worth noting that these are really just vague correlations - there are SO MANY THINGS that could cause a few more cars in a select group of hospital parking lots and a few dozen extra queries about diarrhea on Baidu

          1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          12/n It's hard to know what to make of the paper really, because all the authors are doing is drawing incredibly vague correlations and then suggesting a very unlikely outcome from them Not great, that

          1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
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        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          13/n Really, what this study shows is that if you have enough time you can correlate basically anything It's definitely not proof of much

          1 reply 3 retweets 23 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

          14/n I'd say that the correlations found at Tyler Vigen's website are more likely to be accurate reflections of the truth than these very cursory connections https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations …

          1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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        14. End of conversation

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