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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      2/n The update is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2.full.pdf …

      1 reply 3 retweets 19 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      3/n If you missed it, my original thread on this preprint is here:https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262956011872280577?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Today, this new preprint from John Ioannidis (of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame) went online Already up to Altmetric of 541 Let's do a rapid peer-review on twitter 1/n pic.twitter.com/aNth3I59Xa
      Show this thread
      1 reply 4 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      4/n So, reading the paper, most of the issues are still apparent: - no clear search methodology - strange inclusion/exclusion criteria - odd 'adjustments' that only ever decrease IFR - including strange studies - excluding the most robust estimates

      1 reply 7 retweets 67 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      5/n What has changed is that some of these things are now justified This is good, but not really adequate to improve the rigor of the paper

      1 reply 2 retweets 33 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      6/n For example, we now have this explanation of using the estimates derived from the included papers even if they didn't account for right-censoring The thing is, the issue still remains, we now just have a few words addressing itpic.twitter.com/xUetr3smfa

      1 reply 1 retweet 24 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      7/n There are also still obvious errors in the paper. Ioannidis claims that the Spanish seroprevalence estimate cannot be included because it has only been published as a press release This is wrongpic.twitter.com/HlwMLV5mGa

      5 replies 3 retweets 30 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      8/n In fact, the Spanish seroprevalence estimate is a lengthy government report that is FAR more detailed than many preprints. Excluding it from the main estimate makes no sense scientificallypic.twitter.com/8ammTyzDOk

      3 replies 3 retweets 45 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      9/n Similarly, the Czech Republic seroprevalence study is (while published in Czech) very comprehensive. The same is true of the Danish and English estimates (although not of the Swedish and Slovenian ones)pic.twitter.com/T4jz0po4tW

      4 replies 2 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Martin Modrák‏ @modrak_m 10 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I looked into the methods a bit and I agree that my government seems to have done something well for once :-) if anybody wants help understanding the Czech part, I'll be happy to help.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020
      Replying to @modrak_m

      I might take you up on that!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @modrak_m

      The main question I had was that it looks like they have adjusted for specificity and sensitivity in their final figures - is that right?

      5:37 AM - 10 Jun 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Martin Modrák‏ @modrak_m 10 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Depends which "final figures" you mean. There seems to be no final report yet, I am using official presentation slides. For the estimate of total prevalence, they report with sens/spec included (95% CI, top left are random samples from population, right are convenience samples)pic.twitter.com/OWmcN7j9yF

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Martin Modrák‏ @modrak_m 10 Jun 2020
          Replying to @modrak_m @GidMK

          For the estimate of seropositive w/o symptoms (includes both a- and some pre-symptomatic) the slides are not clear, but since adjustments are explicit on the slide before, I would guess sens/spec is not accounted for. The reported 95% CI for positive w/o symptoms is 27-38%

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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