25/n Now, there are some excellent improvements to the paper For example, much of the language in the discussion/conclusion has been correctedpic.twitter.com/KkVboq3eDO
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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25/n Now, there are some excellent improvements to the paper For example, much of the language in the discussion/conclusion has been correctedpic.twitter.com/KkVboq3eDO
26/n There are still odd, emotive phrases ("blind lockdown"), but the paper no longer describes COVID-19 as common and mild, which was clearly incorrect
27/n However, overall this paper still suffers from many of the issues I previously raised, and seems to still substantially underestimate the IFR of COVID-19
28/n I should be clear that I am not speculating in any way about the reasoning behind these decisions. The fact that the paper underestimates IFR is a problem, but we can't really know why these decisions were made
No worries! I did a systematic review/meta-analysis with a friend and found a rate of 0.64%, although with significant heterogeneity it's hard to know if this is the 'true' point estimate (it will likely vary by location)https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3 …
Tbh I thought the actual study itself was reasonable, but in this case the interpretation seemed very odd. The updated nationwide study on Medrxiv seems fine in general, unless there are other issues?
No indeed, it is a serious problem that many places are undercounting COVID-19 deaths and there are a number of efforts looking at ascertaining a 'true' figure
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