15/n If we again only look at studies using a population-wide estimate of IFR, we see that the lowest estimate is still Ioannidis' Santa Clara study, with the estimates ranging from 0.18%-0.78%pic.twitter.com/7dHABZRXHI
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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15/n If we again only look at studies using a population-wide estimate of IFR, we see that the lowest estimate is still Ioannidis' Santa Clara study, with the estimates ranging from 0.18%-0.78%pic.twitter.com/7dHABZRXHI
16/n This is still a bit low - for some reason, this paper uses an incorrect IFR for the Brazilian estimate (0.3% instead 1% given by the authors) - but much more in line with the estimate from our updated meta-analysis of 0.64%https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3 …
17/n One thing worth noting - the paper still makes the clear error in comparing the IFR of COVID-19 to influenza This is a common mistake, so I thought I'd highlight itpic.twitter.com/Oscf9UZn4q
18/n Here, Ioannidis is comparing the IFR of influenza used by the CDC - which is ~0.1% - to the IFR of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence studies These two figures, however, are not comparable
19/n The IFR estimate for influenza generated by the CDC is the result of a complex modelling process that inflates the numerator (deaths) according to hospitalization data for pneumonia and other ICD codespic.twitter.com/YMS8AkDyh7
CDC models work out as CFR right? As far as i know they limit their estimates to symptomatic infections and they dont correct for Asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic flu infections. Two studies estimate true asymptomatic as subclinical flu infections as 25% and 40-50% respectively
Oh yes that's a good point. Although I think the proportion of asymptomatic carriage in influenza is lower than COVID-19, so not quite as substantial an issue
Sure but even the CDC note that their estimates for flu burden will most likely double if asymptomatic flu infections are accounted for. This suggests an upper bound estimate of 0.05% for Flu IFR https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm …pic.twitter.com/BFJiFZKTEa
Lol, well that's interesting. Puts even more doubt on the nonsense that COVID-19 is just influenza
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