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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      13/n It's also worth noting that Ioannidis has violated his own inclusion criteria, with at least one study under the arbitrary 500-person sample size that has been includedpic.twitter.com/ard0rwK6T4

      2 replies 2 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      14/n While it is hard to know why this is still the case, again the decisions made in the paper exclusively work to suggest a lower IFR than that actually implied by most research, which is worrying

      1 reply 2 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      15/n If we again only look at studies using a population-wide estimate of IFR, we see that the lowest estimate is still Ioannidis' Santa Clara study, with the estimates ranging from 0.18%-0.78%pic.twitter.com/7dHABZRXHI

      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      16/n This is still a bit low - for some reason, this paper uses an incorrect IFR for the Brazilian estimate (0.3% instead 1% given by the authors) - but much more in line with the estimate from our updated meta-analysis of 0.64%https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3 …

      2 replies 5 retweets 20 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      17/n One thing worth noting - the paper still makes the clear error in comparing the IFR of COVID-19 to influenza This is a common mistake, so I thought I'd highlight itpic.twitter.com/Oscf9UZn4q

      2 replies 4 retweets 31 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      18/n Here, Ioannidis is comparing the IFR of influenza used by the CDC - which is ~0.1% - to the IFR of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence studies These two figures, however, are not comparable

      2 replies 4 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      19/n The IFR estimate for influenza generated by the CDC is the result of a complex modelling process that inflates the numerator (deaths) according to hospitalization data for pneumonia and other ICD codespic.twitter.com/YMS8AkDyh7

      2 replies 1 retweet 32 likes
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    8. Victor Vincent‏ @viciykevin 9 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      CDC models work out as CFR right? As far as i know they limit their estimates to symptomatic infections and they dont correct for Asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic flu infections. Two studies estimate true asymptomatic as subclinical flu infections as 25% and 40-50% respectively

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Victor Vincent‏ @viciykevin 9 Jun 2020
      Replying to @viciykevin @GidMK

      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Victor Vincent‏ @viciykevin 9 Jun 2020
      Replying to @viciykevin @GidMK

      https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/22/6/15-1080_article …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020
      Replying to @viciykevin

      Oh yes that's a good point. Although I think the proportion of asymptomatic carriage in influenza is lower than COVID-19, so not quite as substantial an issue

      6:19 PM - 9 Jun 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Victor Vincent‏ @viciykevin 9 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Sure but even the CDC note that their estimates for flu burden will most likely double if asymptomatic flu infections are accounted for. This suggests an upper bound estimate of 0.05% for Flu IFR https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm …pic.twitter.com/BFJiFZKTEa

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020
          Replying to @viciykevin

          Lol, well that's interesting. Puts even more doubt on the nonsense that COVID-19 is just influenza

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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