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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      18/n Here, Ioannidis is comparing the IFR of influenza used by the CDC - which is ~0.1% - to the IFR of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence studies These two figures, however, are not comparable

      2 replies 4 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      19/n The IFR estimate for influenza generated by the CDC is the result of a complex modelling process that inflates the numerator (deaths) according to hospitalization data for pneumonia and other ICD codespic.twitter.com/YMS8AkDyh7

      2 replies 1 retweet 32 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      20/n Why is this a problem? Well, we are not comparing apples with apples here. Numerous efforts have demonstrated that the death count of COVID-19 in many places is a significant underestimate (by 50%+)pic.twitter.com/vR5VxuCUFg

      1 reply 3 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      21/n If we instead compare the IFR of influenza calculated from seroprevalence studies and official death counts to the same for COVID-19, we see a VERY different picture

      1 reply 3 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      22/n The HIGHEST IFR estimate for influenza using this methodology, based on a 2014 systematic review, is 0.01% That's 18x lower than the lowest reasonable estimate of COVID-19 IFRhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ …

      3 replies 14 retweets 58 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      23/n More broadly, if we look at the total range, the IFR of COVID-19 calculated from seroprevalence data appears to be around 50-100x higher than the same number for influenza

      1 reply 12 retweets 33 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      24/n This is actually a serious flaw with the paper - the author has chosen only to pursue corrections of the data that push the IFR lower. If we were to account for excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 - based on published research - the IFRs would all jump substantially

      1 reply 2 retweets 34 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      25/n Now, there are some excellent improvements to the paper For example, much of the language in the discussion/conclusion has been correctedpic.twitter.com/KkVboq3eDO

      1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      26/n There are still odd, emotive phrases ("blind lockdown"), but the paper no longer describes COVID-19 as common and mild, which was clearly incorrect

      1 reply 0 retweets 25 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      27/n However, overall this paper still suffers from many of the issues I previously raised, and seems to still substantially underestimate the IFR of COVID-19

      1 reply 2 retweets 33 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020

      28/n I should be clear that I am not speculating in any way about the reasoning behind these decisions. The fact that the paper underestimates IFR is a problem, but we can't really know why these decisions were made

      5:00 PM - 9 Jun 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 30 Likes
      • M.B. Drapier Oscar, Skeptic. Inventor of the Seesaw Stormageddon, Dark Lord of All Penny Peters Robb Beal Anthony Kwok Kim Perales Tom Sweeney KS
      2 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
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        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Jun 2020
          Replying to @JefinhoMenes

          No worries! I did a systematic review/meta-analysis with a friend and found a rate of 0.64%, although with significant heterogeneity it's hard to know if this is the 'true' point estimate (it will likely vary by location)https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3 …

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Andy "the other" Shih (石谨魁)‏ @ASAndyShih 10 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp please rollup

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 10 Jun 2020
          Replying to @ASAndyShih

          Hello, the unroll you asked for: @GidMK: Ok, so Ioannidis has updated his preprint This is good - hats off to him for acknowledging issues and working… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1270490491600003072.html … Have a good day. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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