Excess mortality estimates come from here:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v3 …
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Thoughts of seroprevalence potentially being an under estimate by any limitations in testing? Ballpark likelihood you think?
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Without knowing more about the study itself it's hard to say
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Very interesting! Although a little short :-)
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Not really a random sample, though, they mainly tested close contacts from the most affected areas of the province. Towns like Nembro and Alzano, where >1% of the population died.
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It is one thing to think about an overall IFR for someplace like Italy, where at least now, people are receiving good care. Now think about Peru, where they are running out of Oxygen. For many people around the world who are going to get this, hospitals might as well not exist.
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New serosurvey from Switzerland: 7% seropositive, IFR 0,7% (0,5% - 1,3 %)https://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1270274010744360960 …
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This preprint suggests 30% of symptomatic infections didn't produce detectable antibodies.pic.twitter.com/82fyntiuxp
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So some random study used a test with sensitivity of 70%? What's interesting about that?
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