That being said, Spain and Slovenia have very similar median ages (43 vs 45) but drastically different IFRs (0.17% vs 1.15%) so clearly age isn't the only factor here
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Replying to @Doryphore6 @MagnetsOh and
Thus far, most reliable estimates are around 0.5-1%. I think the point estimate from our systematic review (~0.64%) is a reasonable sense-check
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Replying to @Doryphore6 @MagnetsOh and
Actually, I think that currently they are mostly underestimates - many countries are collecting death data haphazardly, and excess death counts indicate much higher numbers. It's not unlikely that, when we develop a more comprehensive estimate, the IFR will go up a lot
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Replying to @Doryphore6 @MagnetsOh and
We know that they used a test with low specificity and sampled high-risk groups. Chances are it's biased, but we can't be certain until it's published
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Replying to @Doryphore6 @MagnetsOh and
That's not really what the Wuhan data shows (risk of community transmission =/= prevalence), and we have a fair bit of data behind the expectation that HC workers would be at increased risk. It's also not the only reason that I've given for the IFR to be a likely underestimate
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I mean, comparability of those two samples aside, there's a very obvious reason why testing conducted in early April/ late March might have lower antibody levels than more recent testing. Again, this seems disingenuous
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