While there's not much information I could find online, the governor said that they were targeting high-risk groups like HC workers and first responders - selection bias
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Replying to @Doryphore6 @MagnetsOh and
Oh absolutely, although I'm not sure I agree that blood donors would have a lower prevalence. But I think in this case it's fairly uncontroversial to say that the estimate of 0.26% is likely biased downwards and the true figure is probably quite a bit higher
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Replying to @Doryphore6 @MagnetsOh and
I agree that there are lower estimates - in large part, this is likely age-related (I.e. Singapore). But in this case, for Florida, I think we can say with some certainty that an IFR of 0.26% would be an underestimate
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Replying to @Doryphore6 @MagnetsOh and
The .8 wasn't based on this specific example, so that's just a straw man. I think the lowest estimate from a well-done study currently is Slovenia, at 0.17%. The highest is from the excellent Spanish seroprevalence study is 1.15%, although the Danish sample is 0.5-1.7%
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Replying to @Doryphore6 @MagnetsOh and
The study quality isn't impacted by age breakdown. As I said, you would expect the value to vary somewhat by population. For example London (IFR ~0.5%) is lower than England (~0.8%) probably due in part to the younger age
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That being said, Spain and Slovenia have very similar median ages (43 vs 45) but drastically different IFRs (0.17% vs 1.15%) so clearly age isn't the only factor here
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Replying to @Doryphore6 @MagnetsOh and
Thus far, most reliable estimates are around 0.5-1%. I think the point estimate from our systematic review (~0.64%) is a reasonable sense-check
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End of conversation
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