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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 4 Jun 2020

      First “Among 452 returnees evacuated from Hubei province in March, 2020, the seroprevalence was 4%, with the majority (88%) being confirmed by microneutralisation assay.” 3/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 4 Jun 2020

      But earlier in the results “665 serum samples were collected from 452 returnees from Hubei province (of which 364 [80·5%] were from Wuhan)” So it’s not a random sample of Hubei (or likely even Wuhan but let’s not get distracted) 4/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 4 Jun 2020

      Then later, “Of the 17 seropositive returnees…16 individuals who were seropositive had been staying in Wuhan” So again it’s mostly Wuhan, not Hubei. And we know that there were few deaths outside the city. 5/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    4. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 4 Jun 2020

      Bill Hanage Retweeted Nicola Low #EveryDayCounts #StillFBPE

      This matters, because later in the discussion these data end up being used to estimate the total number of cases and infection fatality rate for Hubei! It comes in at 0.16% - much much lower than estimated elsewhere. @nicolamlow spotted this https://twitter.com/nicolamlow/status/1268434824731283456?s=20 … 6/n

      Bill Hanage added,

      Nicola Low #EveryDayCounts #StillFBPE @nicolamlow
      Replying to @BillHanage
      Important: I must say, I don't like seeing extrapolations to mortality rates in the discussion section. If it's an important result, it should be in the results. Here, have they extrapolated 4% sero+ to population of Hubei and Wuhan? Results say 16/17 sero+ were from Wuhan 1/n pic.twitter.com/kqvZ5RBNZF
      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 4 Jun 2020

      Then as pointed out by @viciykevin and @chenchenzh. If we limit ourselves only to the returnees from Wuhan (with caveat that they’re not necessarily a representative sample) 16/364 are seropositive, or 4.4%. 4.4% of Wuhan (popn 11 million) is nearly 500,000. 7/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    6. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 4 Jun 2020

      Bill Hanage Retweeted Health Nerd

      Now there were about 4000 deaths in Wuhan (NYT). So what would that imply for the IFR in Wuhan? It would be about 0.8% That is a number that *is* consistent with the data from elsewhere (HT @unsorsodicorda for the link) https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1267683223712104450?s=20 … 8/n

      Bill Hanage added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      For those interested, here's the latest meta-analysis of COVID-19 IFR. Some changes: - revised confidence intervals for several studies - removed 2 models (CEBM and Basu) - Added Denmark and Brazilian estimates Point estimate is largely the same at 0.66% (0.52-0.8%) pic.twitter.com/OCiZRNSVtQ
      Show this thread
      2 replies 2 retweets 11 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 4 Jun 2020

      Yet again, a story that seems to indicate that #COVID19 is actually mild turns out to say nothing of the kind once you dig into it (can a note to that effect be added @onisillos?) Thanks to @nicolamlow @chenchenzh @viciykevin and @sudha_lakshmi for making me come back to it 9/end

      6 replies 3 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage @onisillos and

      Yes, I was somewhat confused when I read it. Doesn't really make sense to use the entire population of Hubei as the denominator, because most of the people came from Wuhan

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage and

      Also, in early April the govt revised death numbers upwards in Wuhan/ Hubei substantially, so using the late March numbers could be misleading

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 4 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      People keep forgetting that by March there really wasn't much going on in Wuhan. And yes there was that big leap in mid april. Anyway gotta go write a letter to the journal pointing it all out!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage

      😂 enjoy!

      1:01 PM - 4 Jun 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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