Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer @GidMK

      A correct indicative serology sample to determine IFR is based exactly proportionally to the areas where deaths occurred. If 80% of the deaths are in 25% of your zip codes then your sero sample should be populated 80% from those zip codes not 25%. NYC sero sample didn't do that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer @GidMK

      To calculate IFR off of the broad based NYC serology is nonsense. That sample isn't appropriately weighted to where deaths occurred. All of these "back of the envelope" IFR calcs overestimate IFR & in NYC its a significant overestimate given how high sero is in heavy hit areas.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer

      Epidemiologically, that's basically nonsense. You would expect both the seropositivity and death rates to vary by suburb, due to demographic and other factors, and so weighting by seropositive tests would unnecessarily bias your final number

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      It's math. If 100% of your deaths are in 10 neighborhoods representing 10% of your population, then sampling in the other 90% is useless. It's like including samples from Kansas when you're trying to figure out the IFR in Arizona. Your sero sample has to be where deaths occur.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer

      Nope, that'd give you a totally useless estimate. The serosurveys should ideally be population representative and randomly sampled, otherwise all you're doing is picking a different bias for your sample

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Wrong. You take random broad demographic samples in the communities where people are dying & weight those samples based on community death proportion to figure out IFR & IFR by demographic. It's exactly how people who actually have to earn a living underwriting such risk do it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer

      Demographics absolutely, one of the weaknesses of current estimates is that they are not at least age-stratified. I think what you're describing is simply using smaller blocks for IFR - not entirely unjustified - not 'weighting' by suburb (which would be a bad idea)

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 4 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Yes, IFR by borough, neighborhood & apartment complex as NYC is very heterogeneous. Have to make sure all appropriately represented (it’s not in NYC sero study, sample is also WAY too small). Some apartment complexes (& all care homes) with outbreaks not even included in sample.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer

      Sample definitely isn't way too small, it's far more about design than specifically large sample sizes. Some of the more robust epidemiological surveys in the US have only 10k participants total

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 4 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      It’s way too small & narrow for NYC’s heterogeneity. Neighborhoods, apartment complexes & nursing homes w/ massive outbreaks & 50+% seroprevalence had ZERO representation in NYC sample. People who make livings underwriting this risk know it as do all the quants here. IFRs lower.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer

      Look, I'm not going to go over epidemiological sampling for you any more, it's a complex topic and there's only so much time in the world. Look it up sometime 👍

      5:24 AM - 4 Jun 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Dennis Sweitzer (PhD)
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 4 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I've seen enough bad math & analytics already from the epidemiological community. "Let's over represent low seroprevelance areas while excluding high seroprevelance areas from the sample." Classic! Just another epidemiological denominator disaster & more sloppy analytics.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info