Here's an interesting point - there have now been ~22,000 confirmed or probable COVID-19 deaths in NYC With an IFR of 0.9% (from serology), that implies that roughly 30% of the population has been infected
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Wrong. You take random broad demographic samples in the communities where people are dying & weight those samples based on community death proportion to figure out IFR & IFR by demographic. It's exactly how people who actually have to earn a living underwriting such risk do it.
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Demographics absolutely, one of the weaknesses of current estimates is that they are not at least age-stratified. I think what you're describing is simply using smaller blocks for IFR - not entirely unjustified - not 'weighting' by suburb (which would be a bad idea)
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