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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Jun 2020

      Here's an interesting point - there have now been ~22,000 confirmed or probable COVID-19 deaths in NYC With an IFR of 0.9% (from serology), that implies that roughly 30% of the population has been infected

      3 replies 7 retweets 10 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Here's the April serology (which is even higher now) in the areas hardest hit in NYC so you may need to rethinking your IFR assumptions for NYC:pic.twitter.com/Yh1YJe6KGH

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer

      Actually the 0.9% is based on the April serology. Depending on how you account for right-censoring, the serology from April implies an IFR of 0.77-1% in NYC

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    4. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      You have to weight sero based on areas where people died. Sero of 5% in highly populated rich neighborhoods were few people died skew your IFR est high. If 80% of deaths are in areas with 40+% sero then you need to weight that sero at 80%. That's NYC. Your IFR est is too high.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer @GidMK

      A correct indicative serology sample to determine IFR is based exactly proportionally to the areas where deaths occurred. If 80% of the deaths are in 25% of your zip codes then your sero sample should be populated 80% from those zip codes not 25%. NYC sero sample didn't do that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer @GidMK

      To calculate IFR off of the broad based NYC serology is nonsense. That sample isn't appropriately weighted to where deaths occurred. All of these "back of the envelope" IFR calcs overestimate IFR & in NYC its a significant overestimate given how high sero is in heavy hit areas.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Jun 2020
      Replying to @12FreeBeer

      Epidemiologically, that's basically nonsense. You would expect both the seropositivity and death rates to vary by suburb, due to demographic and other factors, and so weighting by seropositive tests would unnecessarily bias your final number

      7:30 PM - 3 Jun 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Dennis Sweitzer (PhD)
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          It's math. If 100% of your deaths are in 10 neighborhoods representing 10% of your population, then sampling in the other 90% is useless. It's like including samples from Kansas when you're trying to figure out the IFR in Arizona. Your sero sample has to be where deaths occur.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Free Beer‏ @12FreeBeer 3 Jun 2020
          Replying to @12FreeBeer @GidMK

          Same thing with nursing homes. If 100% of your deaths are in nursing homes then testing in the general population is ridiculous. Just like using a 100% general population sero sample when 50% of deaths are in closed nursing home communities. It's not complicated, it's math.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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