Here's an interesting point - there have now been ~22,000 confirmed or probable COVID-19 deaths in NYC With an IFR of 0.9% (from serology), that implies that roughly 30% of the population has been infected
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It's math. If 100% of your deaths are in 10 neighborhoods representing 10% of your population, then sampling in the other 90% is useless. It's like including samples from Kansas when you're trying to figure out the IFR in Arizona. Your sero sample has to be where deaths occur.
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Same thing with nursing homes. If 100% of your deaths are in nursing homes then testing in the general population is ridiculous. Just like using a 100% general population sero sample when 50% of deaths are in closed nursing home communities. It's not complicated, it's math.
End of conversation
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