Here's an interesting point - there have now been ~22,000 confirmed or probable COVID-19 deaths in NYC With an IFR of 0.9% (from serology), that implies that roughly 30% of the population has been infected
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You have to weight sero based on areas where people died. Sero of 5% in highly populated rich neighborhoods were few people died skew your IFR est high. If 80% of deaths are in areas with 40+% sero then you need to weight that sero at 80%. That's NYC. Your IFR est is too high.
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A correct indicative serology sample to determine IFR is based exactly proportionally to the areas where deaths occurred. If 80% of the deaths are in 25% of your zip codes then your sero sample should be populated 80% from those zip codes not 25%. NYC sero sample didn't do that.
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