More estimates of the IFR of COVID-19 out recently Might start a thread collating the new ones I see
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Given that ~75% of London COVID-19 deaths occur in hospitals, that means ~7,500 deaths and ~1.5mil cases, so an IFR of ~0.5% for London
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We can also look at the whole UK IFR from this data ~5% of the country infected gives ~3,332,500 infections 24,000 deaths in-hospital gives ~32,000 deaths Therefore overall IFR is 32k/3.3mil = 0.96% IFR
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(Apologies, above tweet should say IFR for the whole of ENGLAND, not the UK. This data is from the ONS testing in England, and the death reports from England as well)
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4 - Belgium New preprint estimates seroprevalence in Belgium as of April 26th at ~6% Population of Belgium - 11,460,000, so ~690,000 infections Implies an IFR of 1.1%pic.twitter.com/g3cHlGhsw5
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This is using death data from the 30th of April to again crudely account for right-censoring
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Another new estimate - the authors of the Geneva seroprevalence study have age-corrected their data and come to an IFR of 0.64%https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127423v1 …
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Second stage of Indiana serology testing has come back, implying 1.5% of the population had been infected (and 0.6% was currently infected) with COVID-19 by 8th June That's 2.1% of 6,732,000 people, or 141,000 infectionspic.twitter.com/Ejq4MmA7Kf
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With 2,413 deaths in Indiana by 13th of June, this implies an infection-fatality rate of 2413/141000 = 1.7% (VERY high)




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End of conversation
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Financial Times and
@ChrisGiles_ have the numbers for total /excess deaths and day of death instead of reported day. Would be better to use that right? -
Yes and no. I think we're currently underestimating ifr because we don't use excess mortality, but equally it's hard to know which estimate of excess mortality is the most robust (there are a number of academic ones as well)
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