April 19-28 IgG tests run. IgG is a ~14 day min antibody - reflects an avg antibody date of Apr 9. On that date 7,067 persons had perished in NY. So the iCFR was 7,067/(.14 x 19.54M) = 0.26% Just as we cited a month ago. 0.26% Antifas hate this.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.25.20113050v1 …
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Will try 1 more time to emphasize importance of thinking across time series. Made same chart for full of NY State using the 14% on 3/29. IFR ~0.72% (still in range) & CFR ~8.4% (just implies more accessible testing in rest of state than NYC).pic.twitter.com/qBtM8puTlt
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@GidMK so concisely says, calculating D(t)/N(t) is a largely "meaningless number." All we can say is that it that number would be systematically low. It could be seen as a lower limit as would only be valid if nobody else who was already infected later died.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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