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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Ethical Skeptic  ☀‏ @EthicalSkeptic 1 Jun 2020

      April 19-28 IgG tests run. IgG is a ~14 day min antibody - reflects an avg antibody date of Apr 9. On that date 7,067 persons had perished in NY. So the iCFR was 7,067/(.14 x 19.54M) = 0.26% Just as we cited a month ago. 0.26% Antifas hate this.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.25.20113050v1 …

      15 replies 57 retweets 184 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @EthicalSkeptic

      Presumably everyone hates it, because it's nonsense. IgG for COVID-19 starts testing positive at ~10 days, reaches 100% at ~20. Median death time is 21 days, with a very long tail. Even without accounting for right-censoring in this study, the IFR for NYC is 0.85-0.94%

      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @EthicalSkeptic

      The calculation required to assume an IFR of 0.26% is quite obviously incorrect. In your assessment, you're implying that all deaths for people who were infected UP TO April 9th would've happened by that day, which is clearly wrong

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    4. Ethical Skeptic  ☀‏ @EthicalSkeptic 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      And your approach assumes that all tests which were run, were of people who just happened to reside right at the IgG window inception. That's a pretty big miss of a critical concept there nerd. The measured interval is max 18 days, average 14.pic.twitter.com/RqoMtqZhAQ

      3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
    5. Russ Conser‏ @russ_conser 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @EthicalSkeptic @GidMK

      The paper does corrections for IgG time lag and pegs the relevant date as March 29. @EthicalSkeptic, still don't understand why you would compare deaths and infections on same dates? Using concepts I shared last week (chart below), would estimate NYC IFR ~0.55% from this paper.pic.twitter.com/vO6xcGYcYe

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Ethical Skeptic  ☀‏ @EthicalSkeptic 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @russ_conser @GidMK

      I'm not doing that. My day count is a rule of thumb (yellow highlight), based upon the following calculus. The argument is not a medical device/technical argument. Most miss this. Rather the critical path issue is the study inclusion criteria IgG arrival profile.pic.twitter.com/gfn8nwjvj5

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
    7. Ethical Skeptic  ☀‏ @EthicalSkeptic 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @EthicalSkeptic @russ_conser @GidMK

      If I cede the three days - which is a BIG assumption because the bias exposure in that constraining metric is FORWARD biased. That takes the iCFR to 0.34%. My 14 day rule of thumb has provided consilience in all my calcs - however, the 0.34% may be appropriate for NY State.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    8. Russ Conser‏ @russ_conser 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @EthicalSkeptic @GidMK

      What date is "that date" for deaths in your numerator? I don't see a total of 7,067 in the JHU dataset, but looks like we passed that mark on April 6 in NY State.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @russ_conser @EthicalSkeptic

      I wouldn't bother, the calculation is nonsense. I'm fairly sure there's a political angle to the argument here that's driving this person towards a meaningless number

      12:59 PM - 2 Jun 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Atomsk's Sanakan
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Russ Conser‏ @russ_conser 2 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @EthicalSkeptic

          Will try 1 more time to emphasize importance of thinking across time series. Made same chart for full of NY State using the 14% on 3/29. IFR ~0.72% (still in range) & CFR ~8.4% (just implies more accessible testing in rest of state than NYC).pic.twitter.com/qBtM8puTlt

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Russ Conser‏ @russ_conser 3 Jun 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @EthicalSkeptic

          As @GidMK so concisely says, calculating D(t)/N(t) is a largely "meaningless number." All we can say is that it that number would be systematically low. It could be seen as a lower limit as would only be valid if nobody else who was already infected later died.

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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