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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jun 2020

    More estimates of the IFR of COVID-19 out recently Might start a thread collating the new ones I see

    9:08 PM - 1 Jun 2020
    • 14 Retweets
    • 41 Likes
    • MarcBurton Marius Loots The_Skeptical_Scientist⚗️💉🔬🔭⚖️ Terry Griffin Anti-Crypto Index John Baxindine Guffy aure D
    5 replies 14 retweets 41 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jun 2020

        1 - NYC We already had the basic data, but the testing implies 22.7% infected from tests between 19/04-28/04. Taking the 28/04 date to crudely account for right-censoring, this gives an IFR: 17682/1906573 = ~0.92%

        2 replies 4 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jun 2020

        Study is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.25.20113050v1 … IFR for the whole state is a bit lower - using the same date cutoff, it is ~0.84% with 14% infected

        2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jun 2020

        2 - Brazil An impressive effort from Brazil, nationwide seroprevalence sampling. The authors report a corrected IFR of 1% https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.30.20117531v1 …pic.twitter.com/bcT4vTzRv7

        1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Jun 2020

        What's particularly interesting about the Brazilian study is that the IFR range is given, with places reporting between 0% and 2.4%

        3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020

        3 - London While the testing hasn't been published formally, the estimates appear to be that 17% of the city had antibodies mid-May So, cumulative incidence of ~1.5million people by 13thhttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30247-2/fulltext#coronavirus-linkback-header …

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020

        Now, extracting an IFR from these figures is a bit of a headache, because England only publishes specific information on COVID-19 deaths in hospitals, but the deaths appear to be 5,644 on this date from that source

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020

        Given that ~75% of London COVID-19 deaths occur in hospitals, that means ~7,500 deaths and ~1.5mil cases, so an IFR of ~0.5% for London

        2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020

        We can also look at the whole UK IFR from this data ~5% of the country infected gives ~3,332,500 infections 24,000 deaths in-hospital gives ~32,000 deaths Therefore overall IFR is 32k/3.3mil = 0.96% IFR

        3 replies 3 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Jun 2020

        (Apologies, above tweet should say IFR for the whole of ENGLAND, not the UK. This data is from the ONS testing in England, and the death reports from England as well)

        3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

        4 - Belgium New preprint estimates seroprevalence in Belgium as of April 26th at ~6% Population of Belgium - 11,460,000, so ~690,000 infections Implies an IFR of 1.1%pic.twitter.com/g3cHlGhsw5

        3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Jun 2020

        This is using death data from the 30th of April to again crudely account for right-censoring

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Jun 2020

        Another new estimate - the authors of the Geneva seroprevalence study have age-corrected their data and come to an IFR of 0.64%https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127423v1 …

        1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 30 Jun 2020

        Second stage of Indiana serology testing has come back, implying 1.5% of the population had been infected (and 0.6% was currently infected) with COVID-19 by 8th June That's 2.1% of 6,732,000 people, or 141,000 infectionspic.twitter.com/Ejq4MmA7Kf

        3 replies 3 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 30 Jun 2020

        With 2,413 deaths in Indiana by 13th of June, this implies an infection-fatality rate of 2413/141000 = 1.7% (VERY high) 😬😬😬😬😬

        1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
        Show this thread
      16. End of conversation

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