The influenza IFR is generally calculated using modelled EXCESS mortality attributable to influenza COVID-19 IFR is instead being calculated by simply dividing confirmed deaths by inferred cases
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So even this slightly better comparison, that says COVID-19 is about 100x deadlier than the flu, is using different numerators (although the same denominator) and thus may underestimate the risk
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To take a leaf out of
@d_spiegel's book, this means that you have a similar risk of death from a single COVID-19 infection to 50-100 influenza infections over the course of one year4 replies 13 retweets 27 likesShow this thread -
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Yes, but it's more complex. Influenza has a higher death rate in children and those over 65, so the disease dynamics are very different
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The best estimate for IFR in younger people thus far is, I think, the Danish study, that puts the death rate at ~0.08% in healthy 19-69 year oldshttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075291v1 …
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I haven't, unfortunately
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Well, low is a function of comparison, as you say. Influenza deaths for those aged 65+ typically account for 80-90% of deaths, so the risk for 19-64 year olds would very crudely be around 0.00001-0.0002% for the flu (although this isn't a great direct comparison)
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