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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      Lots of people are still comparing the COVID-19 death rate with influenza ("it's only as deadly as the flu!") This is very misleading If you compare apples to apples, COVID-19 is MUCH deadlier than the flu

      14 replies 75 retweets 214 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      The figure that most people use when talking about the death rate of influenza is 0.1-0.2% (i.e. 1 to 2 deaths per 1,000 cases of flu) They then say that the lower estimates of COVID-19 fatality rate are similar, so it's comparable But they really aren't

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      The 0.1-0.2% figure for influenza is one estimate of the CASE fatality rate - i.e. the number of deaths divided by confirmed cases The CFR for influenza varies significantly, but is around 1-40 deaths per 1,000 people infected (0.1-4%)

      2 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      Comparing to COVID-19, we can see that influenza, with its CFR of 0.1-4% is actually quite a bit lower than the CFR of COVID-19 varying from 0.1-20%

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      This is largely to do with testing - if we only divide deaths by CONFIRMED cases, we ignore all of the people who are never tested for either disease Which is where the INFECTION-fatality rate (IFR) comes in

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      A 2014 systematic review looked at CFR and IFR estimates of influenza during the H1N1 pandemic Now, this was a *bad* year, but it's still interesting to see what the numbers arehttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ …

      2 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      According to this review, if you use the denominator of everyone who is infected (determined from serology tests) the IFR of influenza is 0.001-0.01% (1-10 deaths per 100,000 infections)

      1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      In comparison, the LOWEST estimate of COVID-19 IFR that I've seen anywhere comes from an Iranian paper that has been criticized for undercounting deaths They estimated an IFR of 0.09% (90 deaths per 100,000 infections)

      1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      So even using the LOWEST POSSIBLE FIGURE for COVID-19 and the HIGHEST POSSIBLE FIGURE for influenza, the infection-fatality rate is still 9x higher for COVID than the flu

      1 reply 4 retweets 45 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

      A more realistic estimate, using the plausible ranges for both of these diseases, puts COVID-19 at around 100x more deadly than influenza That is really quite a lot

      8:08 PM - 31 May 2020
      • 7 Retweets
      • 39 Likes
      • Bernie Shelly Mr. Chris Hain Kath Jeremías Incicco Dennis Sweitzer (PhD) Sarah Saxon Rudy Mika Mäkeläinen Serena Ellacott
      2 replies 7 retweets 39 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

          It's also worth noting in this thread that even using the influenza IFR is somewhat misleading, because these IFRs are calculated differently

          1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

          The influenza IFR is generally calculated using modelled EXCESS mortality attributable to influenza COVID-19 IFR is instead being calculated by simply dividing confirmed deaths by inferred cases

          2 replies 2 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

          So even this slightly better comparison, that says COVID-19 is about 100x deadlier than the flu, is using different numerators (although the same denominator) and thus may underestimate the risk

          2 replies 6 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 May 2020

          To take a leaf out of @d_spiegel's book, this means that you have a similar risk of death from a single COVID-19 infection to 50-100 influenza infections over the course of one year

          4 replies 13 retweets 27 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation
        1. Brussels cyclo-pedestrian‏ @bXLpedestrian 31 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Not only vastly deadlier, but also vastly more transmissible, correct? So far more people will get it in an unconstrained scenario, and each be vastly more likely die than if they had flu, making for many many many times more deaths.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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