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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      With guidance from this newly released CDC document, federal agencies are modeling the COVID pandemic using implausibly low fatality rate. Their "best estimate" has a symptomatic CFR of 0.4% Their worst case scenario has CFR — not IFR — of 1% https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html …pic.twitter.com/C4tGpsykHj

      101 replies 587 retweets 1,110 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      Their best estimate of the CFR for people over 65 is 1.3%, and the worst case scenario is 3.2%. I'd love to know how these estimates were obtained, given that they are being used for government planning and recommended to modelers everywhere. h/t @RAVerBruggen, @AndreasShruggedpic.twitter.com/vGv2pJsDLl

      12 replies 109 retweets 423 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      The more I think about it, the more this bothers me. These numbers are so far outside of the scientific consensus that this strikes me as a devious and cynical effort to manipulate not only federal modeling but the broader scientific discourse.

      54 replies 361 retweets 1,193 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      People are asking me what the IFR ranges ought to be. That's tricky and depends in part on the purpose of the models for which the parameters are intended. That said, I'd want to span the range of reasonable estimates, and I want a point estimate that in accord with such.

      3 replies 33 retweets 200 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      The CDC estimates do not seem to be doing that. Here's one reasonable (IMO) systematic review of IFR estimates. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2 … John Ioannidis has lower ranges here https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.article-metrics …, but I don't find them credible; see https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262956011872280577 …pic.twitter.com/erhe41abOV

      7 replies 56 retweets 219 likes
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    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      Imperial College Report 23, released today, estimates IFR for all US states. Almost all of the CDC's parameter range falls well below the almost all of the probability mass in the Imperial estimates. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-23-united-states/ …pic.twitter.com/nDKHooag1V

      12 replies 102 retweets 287 likes
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    7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      Update: fixed the decimal place for the CDC "best estimate":pic.twitter.com/gCYN6eXk1Z

      19 replies 45 retweets 170 likes
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    8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 22 May 2020

      CNN reports on the CDC's parameters. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html …pic.twitter.com/hkzFgzBAXG

      12 replies 47 retweets 180 likes
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    9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 22 May 2020

      For people who don't like the Imperial College numbers, here is the CDC's parameter range overlaid against the data from the meta-analysis cited above (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2.full.pdf …)pic.twitter.com/FqbwSFPv8o

      11 replies 36 retweets 156 likes
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    10. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 28 May 2020

      Followup from @RAVerBruggen:https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/ …

      8 replies 26 retweets 73 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @RAVerBruggen

      There's also an excellent piece by @stephaniemleehttps://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/coronavirus-cdc-infection-fatality-rate …

      2:14 PM - 28 May 2020
      • 5 Retweets
      • 10 Likes
      • Atomsk's Sanakan JP John Roach Damien Lowry Debra Clark M.B. Drapier Scott Myers Bryan P. White, MS, MPH Robert VerBruggen
      0 replies 5 retweets 10 likes

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