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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      Thanks to @hildabast, who gave such detailed and helpful critique We haven't adopted everything (I think it's fair to include the CEBM estimate 🙂) but I think we answered most of the questions!https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1265755135226986499 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      NEW TODAY @LeaMerone and I have updated our systematic review/meta-analysis of the infection-fatality rates of COVID-19 New point-estimate is 0.64% (0.5-0.78%) http://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3 …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
    2. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast 27 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Thx, I'll check it. To be clear: incl CEBM violates systematic reviewing methods for 2 reasons: (a) it's a blog post & your review's methods state articles, preprints & grey literature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_literature … Expand to blog posts, you now have to search for all blog posts to. 1/2

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast 27 May 2020
      Replying to @hildabast @GidMK

      ...& (b) because I pointed to it as one clear example that shows the same studies are being added more than once to your meta-analysis. So the regional fatality rates included more often are skewing the results. http://hildabastian.net/index.php/92 

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020
      Replying to @hildabast

      I didn't think of it as a blog post, I came across it on my Twitter search described in the methods. Not unfair to classify it that way, I'll have to have a think. Technically it's not a meta analysis because the IFR estimate doesn't involve statistical aggregation

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast 27 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      It doesn't matter how you come across something, that's not the problem: if it doesn't fit your inclusion criteria, then it has to be excluded. (Or you revise your inclusion criteria & re-do all the methods needed to accommodate & start searching all over again.)

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020
      Replying to @hildabast

      Definitely, but the main issue was about how to classify it. I'm not sure it's fair to call the estimate a blog post, it's an expert review published on a university website - in this case, my initial thinking was that it is grey literature

      5:35 PM - 27 May 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast 27 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Fair enough - doesn't solve the original problem I was raising it for: double(triple &c) counting.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020
          Replying to @hildabast

          Ah but I don't think it is double-counting, because the actual IFR estimate that they produce is not a statistical aggregate - it's just their expert opinion

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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