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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020

    NEW TODAY @LeaMerone and I have updated our systematic review/meta-analysis of the infection-fatality rates of COVID-19 New point-estimate is 0.64% (0.5-0.78%)http://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3 …

    2:21 PM - 27 May 2020
    • 23 Retweets
    • 50 Likes
    • Haplo Sponge Michel Teivel Brian Romanchuk Imogen Ward Will Fithian Zarja Muršič Gregory Verdugo Richard EB
    8 replies 23 retweets 50 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020

        Some notes: we have tried to respond to every criticism raised so far, but it's challenging to get to everything. It will be updated again!

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020

        I think it's also VERY important to recognize that this point estimate is really just a "best guess" What we're seeing is not unexpected DIFFERENT PLACES HAVE DIFFERENT IFRs

        1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020

        So, for example, Spain's very large serology study showed an IFR of 1-1.3% The Czech Republic had an impressive study that found closer to 0.6% In Wuhan, it appears to have been 0.35% THESE ARE NOT CONTRADICTIONS

        1 reply 5 retweets 14 likes
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      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020

        Indeed, we argue that IFR is likely to vary by demographics and features of the healthcare system

        1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
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      6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020

        This being said, if you are going to use a single number (because everyone loves single numbers) the point-estimate is probably a reasonable one to use

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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      7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020

        There are some big caveats to the new estimate - in particular some thorny included studies that we discuss - but I think it's a fairly reasonable proportion

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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      8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020

        Also, a major criticism has been that we didn't include serology studies No longer! The updated review includes 12 of the published serology estimates, and has a meta-analysis of just these studies as wellpic.twitter.com/qr95xmlPFv

        0 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Peter Suzman‏ @Biomaven 27 May 2020
        Replying to @GidMK @LeaMerone

        But you included some *really* flawed studies in this, like the debunked Bendavid Santa Clara study or the Iran study with obviously fake mortality numbers. And the obviously flawed studies tend to be those pointing to lower IFRs.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 May 2020
        Replying to @Biomaven @LeaMerone

        I'm not sure debunked is the right word, but we did discuss the limitations of those studies in particular in the discussion and how this relates to our final estimate

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Cristian Koepfli‏ @Koepfli_Lab 27 May 2020
        Replying to @GidMK @AnisabelBento @LeaMerone

        In Bergamo (Italy) 2-3% of the POPULATION have died. Probably not everybody has been infected and people are still dying (though fewer). Hard to believe infection fatality rate could be lower than that, at least in a comparable population (many elderly).

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Dr Lea Merone MBChB (hons) MPH&TM MSc FAFPHM Ⓥ‏ @LeaMerone 27 May 2020
        Replying to @Koepfli_Lab @GidMK @AnisabelBento

        Age stratified rates do show a greater IFR and CFR in the elderly and this will skew results in older populations. But I believe our paper does mention the importance of age strat. Also on a more personal note it’s saddening to hear of the situation of bergamo and I wish all well

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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