Some notes: we have tried to respond to every criticism raised so far, but it's challenging to get to everything. It will be updated again!
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I think it's also VERY important to recognize that this point estimate is really just a "best guess" What we're seeing is not unexpected DIFFERENT PLACES HAVE DIFFERENT IFRs
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So, for example, Spain's very large serology study showed an IFR of 1-1.3% The Czech Republic had an impressive study that found closer to 0.6% In Wuhan, it appears to have been 0.35% THESE ARE NOT CONTRADICTIONS
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Indeed, we argue that IFR is likely to vary by demographics and features of the healthcare system
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This being said, if you are going to use a single number (because everyone loves single numbers) the point-estimate is probably a reasonable one to use
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There are some big caveats to the new estimate - in particular some thorny included studies that we discuss - but I think it's a fairly reasonable proportion
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Also, a major criticism has been that we didn't include serology studies No longer! The updated review includes 12 of the published serology estimates, and has a meta-analysis of just these studies as wellpic.twitter.com/qr95xmlPFv
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But you included some *really* flawed studies in this, like the debunked Bendavid Santa Clara study or the Iran study with obviously fake mortality numbers. And the obviously flawed studies tend to be those pointing to lower IFRs.
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I'm not sure debunked is the right word, but we did discuss the limitations of those studies in particular in the discussion and how this relates to our final estimate
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In Bergamo (Italy) 2-3% of the POPULATION have died. Probably not everybody has been infected and people are still dying (though fewer). Hard to believe infection fatality rate could be lower than that, at least in a comparable population (many elderly).
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Age stratified rates do show a greater IFR and CFR in the elderly and this will skew results in older populations. But I believe our paper does mention the importance of age strat. Also on a more personal note it’s saddening to hear of the situation of bergamo and I wish all well
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