.@GidMK
Universal tests of (215) pregnant women in NYC (Mar 22-Apr4) found that 13.5% tested positive yet had no symptoms.
So your assertion that tests will catch “~none~ of the people who are asymptomatic spreaders” is trivially false.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316 …
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Replying to @paulmromer
That's a strawman of my position. The range of false negatives decreases sharply by day of infection - if everyone was tested on the first day of infection, FN rate approaches 100%. On the 4th day, FN (according to the study I cited) ~67%. On 7th day, it's ~38%
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Replying to @GidMK @paulmromer
The broader point is that your assumption that the FN rate is between 5-30% is trivially wrong - rather, it is a complex equation that includes both 100 and 0%, but is biased towards higher values
1:47 PM - 27 May 2020
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