This is 10-20x lower than the estimate from the Santa Clara study, but has some important limitations: - very selected sample - slightly different timeline
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However, it is remarkable that this study has found such a VAST gap, especially considering the care taken in this study to validate the serology test itself
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While inappropriate as a basis for an IFR estimate, I'd also say that this study makes me wonder even more about the very low 0.18% posited by the SC study
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Might be of interest
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Moscow used ELISA to test a random sample of 50,000 people and found 12.5% prevalence https://mosgorzdrav.ru/ru-RU/news/default/card/4021.html … but its deaths even including excess deaths only give IFR 0.3%. Unless specificity is very low, or there delayed deaths is huge
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I would say delayed deaths might not be an important factor given that IgG takes two weeks to develop and onset-death on average takes three weeks. Really only one-week lag and that is already accounted bc the tests were done a week ago. Moscow is an interesting case
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