The numbers: 5,806,000 people 0.5-1.8% infected = 29,000-105,000 Deaths 1/05/2020 = 506 Therefore IFR ~ 0.48-1.7%
-
-
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Sounds reasonable. 1.7% probably too high, 0.5% probably too low. But a reasonable amount of randomness still possible with only ~500 deaths given the importance of nursing home clusters.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
There will be a serological study coming from Bonn in the near future. On TV, the lead researcher said that only a low single digit number of test were positive (out of 3000). Around 0.2% of population were previously tested positive, so this would mean almost no dark figure. 1/2
-
The people being studied are taking part in another longitudinal study (Rhineland Study) anyway, so probably little selection bias. Only two suburbs of Bonn are covered. Lead researcher is Monique Breteler. Source: WDR TV andhttps://rp-online.de/panorama/coronavirus/bonner-rheinland-studie-deutet-auf-niedrige-corona-infektionsrate-hin_aid-51212949 …
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Link please? Do they compute IFR by age? Would be very helpful.
-
Link are available in this tweet, together with a couple of other new studies from for example Sweden, Norway, and Spain pointing in the same direction of an IFR ~1%. https://twitter.com/k_g_andersen/status/1263246859054641152?s=21 … https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1263246859054641152 …
This Tweet is unavailable.
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.