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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 May 2020

      19/n So, a problem The red-outlined studies are clearly not estimates of population IFR - they look at specific, selected individuals and can't be extrapolated The orange-outlined studies are likely underestimates due to methodologypic.twitter.com/b4bZBslEpN

      2 replies 20 retweets 133 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 May 2020

      20/n If we exclude these potentially misleading numbers, the lowest IFR estimate immediately jumps from 0.04% to 0.18% Coincidentally, that 0.18% is Ioannidis' own researchpic.twitter.com/PlaOSJ1AbB

      1 reply 15 retweets 139 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 May 2020

      21/n To me, a low estimate of 0.18% makes MUCH more sense than a minimum of 0.02% for IFR Why? Well, take New York. ~16,000 deaths in a city of 8.4 million means that if every single person has been infected the IFR would be 0.19%pic.twitter.com/pmA8oM4nSm

      10 replies 38 retweets 234 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 May 2020

      22/n Now, everyone calls NYC an outlier, and perhaps it is, but if you repeat this calculation for other places in the States, the same chilling thing happens: Massachusetts: 0.9% New Jersey: 0.12% Connecticut: 0.1%

      10 replies 19 retweets 162 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 May 2020

      23/n The same is true of other places overseas - Lombardy has a total death toll of 0.16%, Madrid is around the same, even London is above 0.1% dead due to COVID-19 It seems INCREDIBLY unlikely, at this point, for the IFR to be below 0.1%

      6 replies 32 retweets 241 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 May 2020

      24/n Now, this is noted in the preprint, but basically dismissed as the deaths of old and poor people That's...not a great perspective imopic.twitter.com/2Zd2se4CyT

      2 replies 23 retweets 216 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 May 2020

      25/n In particular, Ioannidis argues that places with lots of elderly and disadvantaged individuals are "very uncommon in the global landscape" This is trivially incorrect. Most of the world is far worse off than people in NEW YORK CITYpic.twitter.com/HzmUcBdq0V

      12 replies 32 retweets 281 likes
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    8. Médecine Libre (Jérôme Pinguet)‏ @MedecineLibre 25 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Lol don't make up things he didn't write it's ludicrous. Is there another city like NYC in the world? Density? Concentration of poverty, social inequality, combined with relatively high life expectancy? Nope. Bergamo/Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 May 2020
      Replying to @MedecineLibre

      No indeed. Most places that are as dense as NYC are far less wealthy, so if anything we'd expect the death toll to be higher e.g. Jakarta, Lagos, Manila, Dhaka, Kolkata etc

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Médecine Libre (Jérôme Pinguet)‏ @MedecineLibre 25 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Those cities have extremely few people over 65...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 May 2020
      Replying to @MedecineLibre

      Sure but they also have far fewer doctors/hospitals/ICUs per capita, so you'd expect the death rate in all ages to be higher. Lagos also has very significant problems with safe water, which could drive infections

      4:36 PM - 25 May 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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