If you're looking for a realistic minimum population infection-fatality rate for COVID-19, I reckon Slovenia is fairly solid: ~64,000 infected, 107 deaths, ~0.17% IFR
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This is in a rich country, with good healthcare facilities. The majority of cases have been in women, and the median age is pretty average In other words, best case scenario
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Now, this isn't accounting for right-censoring - some people will probably still die in the country due to the disease - but even so, I think at this point that it's unlikely you'd see a lower IFR than Slovenia
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I'm also slightly suspicious of the figures - seems like there's a strong political incentive for Slovenia to have a lower IFR - but again that is part of the idea of a reasonable minimum
8:13 PM - 24 May 2020
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