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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      With guidance from this newly released CDC document, federal agencies are modeling the COVID pandemic using implausibly low fatality rate. Their "best estimate" has a symptomatic CFR of 0.4% Their worst case scenario has CFR — not IFR — of 1% https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html …pic.twitter.com/C4tGpsykHj

      101 replies 587 retweets 1,110 likes
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    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      Their best estimate of the CFR for people over 65 is 1.3%, and the worst case scenario is 3.2%. I'd love to know how these estimates were obtained, given that they are being used for government planning and recommended to modelers everywhere. h/t @RAVerBruggen, @AndreasShruggedpic.twitter.com/vGv2pJsDLl

      12 replies 109 retweets 423 likes
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    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      The more I think about it, the more this bothers me. These numbers are so far outside of the scientific consensus that this strikes me as a devious and cynical effort to manipulate not only federal modeling but the broader scientific discourse.

      54 replies 361 retweets 1,193 likes
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    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      People are asking me what the IFR ranges ought to be. That's tricky and depends in part on the purpose of the models for which the parameters are intended. That said, I'd want to span the range of reasonable estimates, and I want a point estimate that in accord with such.

      3 replies 33 retweets 200 likes
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    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

      The CDC estimates do not seem to be doing that. Here's one reasonable (IMO) systematic review of IFR estimates. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2 … John Ioannidis has lower ranges here https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.article-metrics …, but I don't find them credible; see https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262956011872280577 …pic.twitter.com/erhe41abOV

      7 replies 56 retweets 219 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      Thanks! FYI, added some of the serosurvey to the spreadsheet, should be an updated version online in the next day or two The meta-analysis looks like this nowpic.twitter.com/8rPI2GMWgM

      8:38 PM - 21 May 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 9 Likes
      • Vickey Brickle-Macky Arch-Physicist 😷 #ZeroCovid Dr. Anthony Burnetti Some Guy Harry Hong BastardGuy dinza Carl T. Bergstrom mok
      2 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 22 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

          Sorry to come back again on Sweden, but IFR of their may study is now 0.64, not 0.9? (I am tired, sorry if I am mixing things)

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Meg  💫 would like to return the 2020s, manager‏ @savvymegs 23 May 2020
          Replying to @edw_tweet @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

          Germany did have one with. 36% (but its the lowest I have seen iirc, I forget Icelands)https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090076v1 …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Lucio Martelli‏ @LucioMM1 23 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

          If the aim is to find worldwide (or a specific country) IFR (lethality at 0 containment worldwide if everyone gets infected) how are studies from Spain (median age 44) useful in any meaningful sense? Unless you control for local age distribution you CANNOT average those ESTIMATES

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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