I'd actually really love any answers here - has anyone investigated this question? Lots of people making blanket assumptions with no evidence, but I've yet to see an actual analysis @Adam_Creightonhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1263201123424366592 …
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Replying to @GidMK
Surely can't really know the answer for a year or so. But the null hypothesis that lockdowns aren't helpful certainly hasn't been rejected. (burden of proof should be on the jailer not the jailed?)
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Replying to @Adam_Creighton
Perhaps, but the null hypothesis - that the marginal impact of lockdowns on the economy is no bigger than that we would experience anyway - is similarly not rejected. If both sides of the equation are unknown, it makes no sense to claim one way or the other
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Replying to @GidMK
Surely by logic it must be bigger? Some would choose to self isolate and some wouldn't.
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Replying to @Adam_Creighton
Perhaps, but as I'm sure you know economies are complex things. Risk has a huge impact (my friends in the construction industry, for example, report that long-term projects were down enormously long before lockdowns) and so do deaths
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Replying to @GidMK @Adam_Creighton
Sweden, which took a much looser stance on government regulation, is experiencing a similar economic downturn to its neighbours, which did not. I think the economic impact is likely to be far more complex than lockdowns = bad
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Replying to @GidMK
Of course it would. It's a small open economy. That doesn't show total lockdowns are the right decision in general. Moreover, GDP puts zero value on freedom of movement and choice.
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I never said that total lockdowns are the right decision in general. I think the Australian approach has been world-leading in this regard tbh. And yes of course, but it also discounts the impact of lives lost/long-term health issues/trauma etc
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