It’s not nitpicking but a valid scientific critique. Heavily biased estimates can be worse than none at all - especially when the bias seems to be intentionally in the direction that the author wants.
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How has this become a political issue where the left wants to the IFR to be as high as possible?
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To the extent IFR has been politicized it's to minimize it by some folks on the right to serve the "reopen" agenda. But fundamentally, IFR is incredibly hard to estimate, especially in the middle of a pandemic & the difficulty tends to lead to underestimates.
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I think it's interesting because from an evidential point of view there is really no need to calculate an IFR to justify lockdowns. I think the main reason that the IFR is so politicized is simply because it's lower than a CFR so it's less scary
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Did you look at BMIs over 35? Do you have that data anywhere? I think the age IFR is useful because we should be investing billions in protecting nursing homes because the IFR could be 10% in them If the IFR is the same as the flu for people under 65 do they need to lockdown?
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Replying to @JoshuaKessler1 @GidMK and
You obviously like lockdowns though, so i’m not going to argue that point with you. If definitely slows down deaths, but for how long? And how many other deaths are occurring because people are staying away from the hospital?
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You have found all of the fundamental questions of our moment...pic.twitter.com/44XPTKc06x
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It’s a tricky thing. I work in cancer treatment and I am worried about how many patients are going to come in with advanced stage cancer that we could have stopped two months ago. But, many of those people would be high-risk for Covid too.
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Yep. I work in diabetes primarily, and the issue is similar. People starting to trickle in even now with issues that should've been dealt with months ago, but again if they'd caught COVID they would be extremely high risk so it's a complex trade-off
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Why aren’t we testing constantly in nursing homes! That the most important. Thing we can do!
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The nursing home issue is, to me, relatively simple - we have systematically undervalued aged care for decades, and now there's a time of crisis we simply can't improve what is often a dodgy for-profit sector in time to make a difference
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Actually it’s around 8% for people over 85 but still. This is insane. Fortifying the nursing homes should have been our top priority, we should have invested billions. It should be a law to test all employees twice a week at least and they should all have tons of ppe
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